Harris gains ground in sunbelt states as electoral race tightens
According to the latest polls conducted by the "New York Times" and Siena College and accessed by the Polish Press Agency, Kamala Harris is leading in four out of seven key electoral states. Donald Trump is ahead in two, and both candidates have equal support in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, a nationwide NBC poll indicates a tie between the candidates.
The latest surveys show that Harris is ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points in Nevada (6 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes), and Wisconsin (11 electoral votes). Her lead is one point in Georgia (16 electoral votes).
On the other hand, Trump is leading by four points in Arizona (11 electoral votes) and by one in Michigan (15 electoral votes). In Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), the competition is so close that neither candidate has an advantage.
Expert analyses suggest that if the poll results directly translated into election results, Harris would receive 280 electoral votes—10 more than the required 270—securing her victory regardless of the outcome in Pennsylvania. However, it should be noted that the differences between the candidates, except for Arizona, are within the margin of statistical error.
Nate Cohn, chief analyst at the "New York Times," points to a favourable trend for Harris in the southern "sunbelt" states (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona), which traditionally lean Republican.
At the same time, Trump is strengthening his position in the northern industrial "rust belt" states.
The polls also indicate that 40% of respondents in these states have already voted early; among them, Harris leads by eight percentage points. Furthermore, 58% of voters who decided on their support only in recent days declared support for the Democratic candidate.
Further polls from the USA: statistical tie
Other published surveys also confirm the competitive nature of the race, with Harris holding a slight lead. A nationwide survey by Hart Research Associates for NBC and Emerson College indicates a tie (49% to 49%), while an Ipsos poll for ABC News gives Harris a three-point lead.
The recent survey averages emphasise that there is a statistical tie two days before the election. On a national scale, Harris leads by 1 percentage point, and in six out of the seven key states, the differences between the candidates are less than 1 point.
