Halting of arms transfers from North Korea to Russia raises questions
Analysis of satellite imagery of previous arms transfer routes between North Korea and Russia reveals that movements between the seaports of both countries have ceased. This development is perplexing for analysts monitoring the war in Ukraine, raising questions about potential issues with Russian artillery supplies.
As early as October 2023, the British Ministry of Defence reported a growing collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow resulting in an increased scale and pace of military shipments. Specific routes used by ships carrying ammunition and weapons to Russian forces in Ukraine were identified. This activity continued for several months but has now seemingly been interrupted.
Has North Korea halted deliveries to Russia?
A recent publication in the South Korean NK Pro suggests that there have been no transports along the usual routes for about three weeks. This observation is based on satellite imagery analysis near North Korean ports, with the last shipment recorded on February 12.
The reasons behind the stoppage remain unclear. Production setbacks in North Korean factories or logistical challenges are among the potential explanations proposed by NK Pro writers. It's also conceivable that North Korea might be exploring alternative methods of supporting Russia, such as air or rail transfers along undiscovered routes. However, a rebellion among Russia's key allies seems improbable.
Support from North Korea for Russia
Estimations indicate that from August 2023, four container ships have made at least 32 trips from North Korea to Russia.
Initially, Kim Jong Un’s regime primarily supplied 122mm and 152mm calibre shells, heavily utilized by Russian forces due to their compatibility with most of Putin's artillery systems. Recent assessments suggest that the Russians may have received up to 3 million such shells.
Over time, North Korea's support expanded to include ballistic missiles, specifically the KN-23 or KN-24 models, which are solid-fuel rockets equipped with roughly 500 kg (about 1100 lb) warheads. Photographs capturing the impact of these missiles in Ukraine offer a stark illustration of the destructive capacity of North Korean weaponry.
