Germany's coalition collapse triggers early election showdown
The Bundestag elections are scheduled for 23 February 2025, as reported by the dpa agency on Tuesday. German parties—the SPD, the Greens, and the opposition Christian Democrats—have agreed upon this date. Initial polls indicate that the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) is leading, with the far-right AfD following.
The ruling coalition in Germany has collapsed. Last week, the government disbanded when Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Christian Lindner, the finance minister and head of the coalition FDP. Scholz cited differences over economic and budgetary policy as the reason.
The three-party coalition, comprising the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP, had governed Germany since 2021. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on 16 December that he would seek a vote of confidence for his government. If he fails to secure a vote of confidence, the President of Germany will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag and call new elections.
The President has already expressed his readiness to take such measures. Elections must be held within 60 days of the dissolution of parliament. However, the dpa agency reported that German parties, including the SPD, the Greens, and the opposition Christian Democrats, agreed on the date of 23 February 2025.
Support survey in Germany from 12 November
According to the latest Insa survey, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) has the highest support, 32.5 percent. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in second place, achieving a historic result in recent state elections. Notably, in 2023, the Dresden Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified it as an extremist organisation.
In the survey published on 12 November, the AfD reached 19.5 per cent, marking a 1.5 percentage point increase, the largest of any party. According to Hermann Binkert, head of the Insa institute, the rise in support for the far-right is attributed to two factors: the coalition's collapse and Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections, as reported by Bild.
Support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD remains at 15.5 per cent. Trailing are the Greens at 11.5 per cent, the radical left Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) at 7 per cent, the liberal FDP at 5 per cent, and Die Linke (The Left) at 3.5 per cent.
