Far‑right surge: Macron faces potential cohabitation challenge
24 June 2024 07:26
Emmanuel Macron may soon be compelled to govern in cohabitation with the far-right. The far-right National Rally is polling at 36 percent support ahead of next week's parliamentary elections. However, that is not the end.
A week before the elections, two polls give the National Rally (RN) between 35.5 and 36 percent of the vote. The first survey from the Elabe Centre was announced on Saturday evening by the newspaper "La Tribune," the second was conducted by Ipsos for the newspaper "Le Parisien" and Radio France.
The polls indicate that the New People's Front, a left-wing coalition, could receive between 27 percent and 29.5 percent of the vote. The presidential camp (Emmanuel Macron's party - Renaissance, and its allies) can expect 19.5 to 20 percent support.
The traditional right-wing party—the Republicans—could get 10 percent of the vote, having experienced a split before the election. Party leader Eric Ciotti formed an alliance with the National Rally, the former National Front of Marine Le Pen.
The elections are a week away. What will the seat distribution in France look like?
Based on the latest polls, the BFMTV portal estimated the seat distribution on Sunday. RN could win 250-280 parliamentary seats - while an absolute majority requires 289 seats. The New People's Front could count on 150-170 seats. The presidential camp - on 90-110 seats compared to 245 it held before the parliament was dissolved.
An absolute majority, which, according to this projection, the National Rally is approaching, would mean that the current head of this party, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would become the prime minister. Although Marine Le Pen is not the head of RN, she remains the informal leader of the far-right.
Bardella had previously stated that he would not head the government if his party did not win an absolute majority in the election.
The office of prime minister should go to the party that wins the parliamentary elections. In France, the prime minister is appointed by the president, but he should be confident that his nomination will be accepted by the parliament.
A victory for RN in the elections would mean cohabitation for France—a situation where the president and the prime minister, representing the executive power, come from different political camps. The first round of the elections will be held next week, June 30, and the second, July 7.
