Macron dissolves National Assembly to retain control amid far‑right surge

The decision by French President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly stems from his need to control the course of events; the president does not want to lose initiative, according to a source close to the French head of state in an interview with PAP.

- The president made this decision personally, and only his closest advisers knew about it. It was a surprise to everyone, including the Prime Minister of France, Gabriel Attal, - says the PAP interlocutor.

An employee of the Élysée Palace explains that Macron does not want to lose initiative. The results of the European Parliament elections, in which the far-right National Rally (RN) won 31.3%, and the presidential party Renaissance around 14.6%, mean that if he did not dissolve the parliament, he would lose the control he cares so much about.

He also adds that the president will not reveal the candidate for prime minister from his party until he wins the upcoming elections. As he believes Macron always wanted to have the last word and did not allow anyone else to decide for him, even in the party he founded. - Macron does not like to be forced; he prefers to force others - comments the PAP interlocutor.

As he explains, both the chairperson of the lower house of parliament, Yael-Braun Pivet, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tried to dissuade the president from dissolving the National Assembly until the last moment. His decision surprised most French politicians and commentators worldwide.

Attal and Pivet were supposed to run in the 2027 elections for the office of president, which only members of the Renaissance party knew about, - says a person from Macron's entourage.

- Since the upcoming elections will be very difficult for our party, neither Attal nor Pivet have any chances of winning; after Macron's decision, they have lost their footing, - he assesses.

When asked whether the current Minister of Defence, Sebastien Lecornu, would be able to become prime minister if Renaissance formed a government, the PAP interlocutor replied that such a scenario is possible.

- Lecornu is close to the president, and his additional advantage is that he comes from the right, making it easier for him to form a coalition government with the Republicans (the largest centre-right party). The Minister of Defence was at one time tipped for the position of prime minister, so it is likely that he will, to some extent, lead the upcoming election campaign - explains the PAP source.

At the same time, as he explains, Lecornu's role directly depends on the Republicans' result. If this party gains little support, Lecornu will not form a government anyway.

The National Rally designated Jordan Bardella, the head of this party, as its candidate for prime minister on Monday. The PAP interlocutor presents two possible scenarios in case this radical right-wing party wins.

The National Rally wins the snap elections in the first, obtaining an absolute majority. To support this variant, he cites a survey conducted in December for the Republicans, according to which RN would get enough votes to govern alone if early elections were held. More than half a year later, the radical right in France has even greater support, suggesting that this scenario is the most likely.

According to the second option, the National Rally would not get enough votes to have a parliamentary majority. Since it will not find allies to form a government, a national unity government is likely to be formed, in which the forces present in parliament will govern together, assesses the PAP interlocutor.