Facing a Crisis: Ukraine's Battle Lines Thin as Russian Pressure Mounts

The Ukrainian front is swaying under the pressure of the Russians. Shortages of personnel and ammunition are having a negative impact on the defenders. Moscow is trying to take advantage of the situation. "If the Russians make a strategic breakthrough, they will meet emptiness in the operational depth. They will be able to go far and deep. This is the biggest threat, the worst-case scenario," General Roman Polko tells Virtual Poland.

The British weekly "The Economist" reports that Russians are preparing for an offensive, which is expected to start with the arrival of summer. The situation on the front for Ukrainians is extremely difficult already.

Kyiv's units must cope with an overwhelming advantage of the enemy, which they cannot match. Ukrainians have recently been unable to rely on Western deliveries, significantly reducing their use of artillery. Frontline units also suffer from a lack of personnel - Ukraine is short of people. Putin is well aware of this and wants to take advantage of the situation.

"You don't have to be a great strategist: if the opponent shows weakness, throw all the forces to take advantage of the situation," says General Roman Polko in a conversation with Virtual Poland.

"The fact that Ukraine is deprived of supplies is common knowledge. If the Russians manage a strategic breakthrough, they will meet emptiness in the operational depth. They will be able to go far and deep. This is the biggest threat, the worst-case scenario, which President Zelensky is aware of," explains the former GROM commander.

The absence of operational depth - that is, insufficiently developed defensive lines - is a result of decisions made in Kyiv. Ukrainians largely blame the West for their situation, which promises more than it delivers to the front - as mentioned by "The Economist". This situation is also due to the lack of proper preparation by the Ukrainians themselves. "So much was said about the offensive that the Ukrainians themselves probably believed in it and did not build the defensive fortifications that should have been built earlier," emphasizes General Polko.

Retired military officer General Waldemar Skrzypczak agrees. "It's the mistake of shallow defence. Just as the offensive was a mistake, so not realizing that strategic defence needs to be prepared is also a mistake. It's easy to break through and poorly prepared. Russians have a lot of room for maneuver with the current advantage. They can strike wherever they like," he says in a conversation with WP.

The military also points out that the current Ukrainian defensive lines are 5-8 kilometres deep, which does not guarantee their maintenance. "If they break through, they will pour into the country and push as far as the Dnieper," he emphasizes.

Units under Kyiv's command are also plagued by a lack of people. Russia is preparing another wave of mobilization, which may worsen due to the consequences of the last attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow. Meanwhile, Ukrainian conscripts, who could change the situation on the front, are mostly abroad. "The military crisis in the Ukrainian army is very serious. There's no way to replenish losses. Brigades are at 40-50 percent strength. The crisis is deepening because soldiers are dying, and there's no replacement," explains General Skrzypczak.

"Even if Ukraine carried out mobilization now, those soldiers would only reach the front in the fall. It requires time, training, and preparation. This is not a solution for now," he adds.

The lack of ammunition is, of course, another problem that Zelensky's soldiers are facing. The West itself has a problem finding the necessary shells. The situation might be improved by the delivery announced by the Czechs of about a million artillery rounds, expected to arrive in Ukraine even in April. The desperate ammunition situation was also mentioned by President Zelensky himself, who in an interview broadcast on Thursday for American television CBS stated, "Russia is 100 percent taking advantage of the break in US support for Ukraine; we have almost no artillery left".

"Since August, Ukrainians have not bought ammunition with Western money - mainly artillery. In short, 'they're running on fumes'. Putin knows about the situation in the Ukrainian army, that's why he's pressing Sergei Shoigu to look for quick solutions and take advantage of the situation," points out General Polko.

"The delivery is already significantly delayed. That will last, with the current rate of use, for about two months. However, Ukraine lacks artillery, which is being destroyed, and lacks artillerymen. This will be a use on a very limited scale," he estimates.

So what awaits us in the coming months? Experts point to probable directions of Russian actions. "Putin has set a new goal - last year it was Donbas, now I think it's reaching the Dnieper in the direction of Poltava and Zaporizhia. That would mean taking over all of eastern Ukraine. As a military commander, I would do the same," points out General Skrzypczak.

According to the military, that's not the only target of the Kremlin. "Another goal might be to push Ukraine away from the Black Sea. The operation to the Dnieper could happen in spring-summer. It is possibly being prepared now," he says.

General Polko also mentions the Dnieper line. According to the former GROM commander, "it's hard to predict from tea leaves". "Even on the Dnieper line, there might not be a prepared defence line. The only thing that can limit Russians - if they break through the main line of resistance - is the fear of being hit on the flanks. If you go deep into the operational depth and don't secure your own flanks, you can put yourself in a dangerous situation, which might even lead to encirclement," he emphasizes.

The military points out that morale is the factor that can help Ukrainians turn the situation around. "The most important factor is morale. It allowed Ukraine to repel Russians from Kyiv. The engagement and belief in success were there, now it's gone. Not only Ukrainians, who have the right to be tired but also the West, which is losing the information war, are to blame for this. The soldier on the front line must receive some positive signals of support to build morale. Without this, even miraculous equipment won't help," he says.

"If I were a Russian commander, I'd throw everything I have to further break morale and create a breach in the Ukrainian formation. This goal will certainly guide Moscow. However, this does not mean that Ukraine is lost. The entire art of Putin's war is to set the West against itself, on which he wins," concludes.