Europe weighs security role as US troops stay sidelined
The notion that a contingent of troops provided by European countries could assure Ukraine's security is widely discussed. The Ukrainians are also evaluating the idea of forming such forces, considering whether Europe could deploy 100,000 soldiers and how such a number would translate into border security.
One proposal to ensure Ukraine's enduring security should it not become a NATO member involves peacekeeping forces. The US has ruled out the involvement of American troops; thus, the responsibility of deploying a military contingent falls on European countries.
The Ukrainian service Defence Express decided to calculate how the proposed number of peacekeeping forces would be used to secure the border.
Various figures have been mentioned in the public sphere regarding the size of the European contingent - from 200,000 soldiers (the upper limit) to 40,000 troops (which seems to consider the current limitations of European armies).
How many soldiers will secure Ukraine's border?
Defence Express used a contingent of 100,000 soldiers as a starting point, which is the lower limit suggested by President Zelensky. This number is worth comparing to the total size of the UN peacekeeping forces deployed by countries worldwide. In 2019, this was about 100,000 soldiers, of which African countries provided 44,000.
Ukraine's frontline and external borders, currently threatened by Russia, extend about 3,700 kilometers. A 100,000-strong force would mean roughly 27 soldiers per kilometer of the border, which Defence Express noted would amount to less than a platoon per kilometer.
How many soldiers can Europe deploy?
The question remains open regarding Europe's ability to send 100,000 soldiers to Ukraine. The NATO member armies of European countries currently have just over 2 million soldiers. Excluding Turkey and the pro-Russian sentiment in Hungary and Slovakia, this number drops to about 1.5 million.
In this scenario, 100,000 soldiers represent slightly over 6.5% of the military deployed as expeditionary forces. As noted by the Ukrainian service, while this isn't unrealistic, it requires decision-making dependent on the political will of individual countries' authorities.
