Europe re‑arms: Resurgence of tanks amid Russian threats

In addition to refreshing their arsenal, some countries are replenishing their stocks after having supplied weapons to Ukraine. Poland alone has bought 276 tanks since the outbreak of the war to replace over 300 tanks previously supplied to Ukraine (in addition to 250 ordered M1A2 SEPv3, and a framework agreement for K2 tanks provides for the delivery of another 820 modernised machines that have not yet been requested). By around 2035, Poland could have 1,366 new or used K2/K2PL and Abrams tanks, not counting over 200 Leopard 2PL and A5, and possibly some remaining PT-91 Twardy tanks. Other countries in the region have also embarked on similar purchases.

The small so-called Baltic States—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—have their own plans in this direction. The Republic of Lithuania has taken the most significant steps toward possessing main battle tanks, which is not surprising as it is the wealthiest of the trio.

The first concrete information on this topic appeared over a year ago during the announcement of the plan to form the division headquarters within the Lithuanian Land Forces. The Lithuanian division would have, among other things, an armoured battalion equipped with about 50 tanks and around 10 support vehicles (technical support vehicles, combat engineer tanks, and assault bridges). According to the March 2023 announcement, the battalion would be part of the "Geležinis Vilkas" (Iron Wolf) Mechanised Brigade.

In January 2024, the State Defense Council announced the selection of the German Leopard 2A8 due to unification with the Lithuanian Brigade of the Bundeswehr. At the same time, an obligation was imposed to start negotiations with the manufacturer (KMW, now KNDS Deutschland).

Interestingly, the first rumours about the selection appeared as early as July 2023, but President Gitanas Nausėda insisted on organising a tender. Political arguments prevailed, and the purchase was realised through intergovernmental negotiations. According to recent information, Lithuania intends to buy 55 tanks (possibly including support vehicles) for the King Mindaugas Hussars Battalion.

Latvia, for now, prioritizes infantry fighting vehicles. Only unofficial announcements suggest the purchase of tanks, but not before 2030. Earlier, Riga did not have the funds for it.

A similar situation prevails in Estonia. Introducing a main battle tank into service was considered in the 1990s and again in 2010. The topic was revisited during the war in Ukraine when the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, General Martin Herem, expressed the need for a tank battalion within the forming division.

The realisation of this task, as well as many others, has been postponed to the period after 2031 due to a lack of funds since, despite increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP, the development of artillery or border fortifications was considered more of a priority. Nevertheless, Tallinn intends to continue training armoured officers, as it facilitates cooperation with more heavily armed allies.

The Czechs and Slovaks received a company of old Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in exchange for the weapons supplied to Ukraine as part of the so-called Ringtausch exchange. The Czechs intend to go a step further—and in two ways.

Prague identified the Leopard 2A8 as the future tank of the 73rd Armoured Battalion of the 7th Mechanised Brigade. According to a decision made about a year ago, the battalion will undergo restructuring (instead of 31 T-72M1/M4CZ tanks, it will probably have 58 Leopard 2 tanks) and receive 77 vehicles, some of which will be support vehicles.

Furthermore, the Czech arms industry can count on participation in the later servicing and in the production of vehicles, even with such a small order. Negotiations are underway, similar to the second method of expanding armoured equipment. In addition to the 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks already possessed, if the talks between Berlin and Prague succeed, an equal number of vehicles will be added under the Ringtausch mechanism, and a third identical batch of cars that the Czech Republic could buy from Rheinmetall. The Czechs would have 122 Leopard 2A4/A8 tanks and support vehicles.

Slovakia received 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany, which allowed the enlargement of the 14th Tank Battalion (2nd Mechanised Brigade) from 30 to 45 vehicles (the rest are even older T-72M1). Slovakia had planned to buy new tanks even before the war, announcing in 2021 a plan to purchase 32 tanks and 17 assault bridges for various units, probably including specialist variants.

According to the latest plans announced in mid-May, Slovakia intends to have two armoured battalions with 52 "tanks" each, although this number almost certainly includes specialist vehicles. Ultimately, Slovakia would have 119 tanks (and specialist vehicles?) in two battalions plus training and reserve units. It is not yet known which tanks Slovakia will buy, but the K2, Leopard 2A8, and M1A2 SEPv3 are most likely being considered. A decision should be made soon, as Bratislava wants to sign the contract by the end of next year at the latest. It is also not known where the second tank battalion will be deployed.

Hungary bought new tanks: 44 Leopard 2A7HU, 12 used Leopard 2A4 tanks, five WZT WiSENT 2, and three LEGUAN assault bridges - back in 2018, with the first new vehicles received in December 2023. They entered the armament of the 11th Tank Battalion of the 1st Armoured Brigade "György Klapka." It is not excluded that this is not the end, as the joint venture Rheinmetall Hungary is to produce the KF51 Panther EVO tank (a vehicle derived from the Leopard 2 but with futuristic solutions). Hungary co-financed the tank's development with €288 million (£250 million).

In November 2023, Romania received approval from the U.S. Department of State to purchase 54 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks and 12 accompanying vehicles (four each of the following: M88A2 HERCULES technical support vehicles, M1110 JAB assault bridges, M1150 ABV engineering vehicles), spare parts, etc. This will allow the rearming of one tank battalion. The total value of the package is £2.1 billion, but the Romanian parliament approved signing a contract worth significantly less, amounting to approximately £895 million.

It is yet to be revealed what Romania will withdraw; negotiations on the agreement are ongoing. Furthermore, Bucharest plans to purchase 250-300 tanks (four to six battalions), probably from Hyundai Rotem Company K2. Romania is interested in a technology transfer, which would include at least tank servicing and preferably participation in their production.

If the purchase goes through, the recently showcased K2 tank at the 2nd Smârdan Combat Training Center in Galați County could replace the aging TR-85-800/TR-85M1 and T-55AM/AM2 tanks.

Bulgaria has limited itself to modernising its T-72M1 tanks in cooperation with the domestic company Terem and Israeli Elbit Systems. 44 tanks received, among other things, a modern fire control system and communication means. Before the war, it was planned to replace the T-72 post-2030. However, in November 2022, the Bulgarian parliament approved a plan to provide Ukraine with weapons from its stocks if third countries support modernising the Bulgarian army.

Interestingly, the voting result was contrary to the recommendations of President Rumen Radev and Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov. For now, however, Bulgaria has not received any German or American equipment as part of its aid, and it is possible it has not even formally attempted to obtain such assistance.