EU faces heightened terror threat amidst escalating Islamist activity

Islamist terrorists might attempt an attack on European Union territory. Such concerns have arisen even before the terrorist attack near Moscow. However, only France has raised the threat level - writes Deutsche Welle.

Just three weeks ago, the prosecutor's office in Brussels announced that it managed to prevent a dangerous terrorist attack that was supposed to take place during one of the concerts in the city.

Four people, including three minors, were arrested for planning an attack intended to claim as many victims as possible. The "pattern" was, according to the prosecutor's office, the bloody attack on the Bataclan club in Paris in November 2015.

The activity of potential terrorists in Belgium has significantly increased since the widespread attack by Hamas on Israel and the subsequent military operation by the Israelis in the Gaza Strip. The State Threat Analysis Centre (CUTA) in Brussels reported in early March that the number of planned terror acts in 2023 increased by 41 percent compared to the previous year – from 236 to 332.

In Belgium, since the last attack carried out on 16 October 2023, the third level of a four-degree threat scale is in force. A lone Islamic fundamentalist killed two Swedish citizens then.

After the attack near Moscow on 22 March 2024, which was claimed by the so-called Islamic State, the authorities in Brussels did not raise the threat level.

The French government views it differently, where the highest level of terror threat has been announced - "as a precaution," as Emmanuel Macron stated during a visit to French Guiana.

The French president assumes that it was the so-called Islamic State (IS) that struck near Moscow. – This specific group, which seems to be involved in this attack, has attempted many attacks on our territory in the past months – said Macron, referring to the findings of national and international intelligence services.

After the attack near Moscow, in which at least 137 people died, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser sees no reason to raise the threat level. She points out that the risk associated with the actions of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (ISPK) had already existed earlier.

– ISPK is also currently in Germany a source of the greatest Islamist threat. Our security services are very vigilant and have been observing this terrorist group for quite some time – the minister told the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" newspaper.

During the Christmas season in 2023, plans for attacks on the Cologne Cathedral, St. Stephen's Cathedral in Vienna, and a target in Madrid were disclosed. Already at the end of last year, Nancy Faeser mentioned that the threat had significantly increased after Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October.

Last week in Gera, Germany, two people suspected of planning an attack on the Swedish parliament for ISPK were arrested. As early as 2020, German police authorities had managed to prevent a major attack on American military facilities in Germany.

In Sweden and Denmark, after incidents criticized as anti-Islamic, such as Koran burning, elevated threat levels and security measures are in force. The conflict between Hamas and Israel has led to a further escalation of the situation – states the communication of the Danish police intelligence service PET, which does not exclude in this regard the taking of planned or spontaneous actions on the territory of Denmark, including carrying out terrorist attacks.

The so-called Islamic State Province of Khorasan (ISPK), formed in 2015 in Afghanistan, is supposedly able to count on roughly a thousand active supporters. According to terrorism researcher Peter R. Neumann from King's College London, ISPK is "presumably the only IS branch that would currently be capable of carrying out a large, coordinated attack in the West".

Its motivation is not only Islamist ideology but also competition for dominance in the fanatical fundamentalists' camp – Neumann wrote on the X platform. The majority of ISPK supporters come from Central Asia.

Counter-terrorism falls under the competence of individual EU member states. However, there are a number of bodies for exchanging information and coordinating investigative actions.

One of these institutions is the European police agency Europol, headquartered in The Hague. It also observes an increase in terrorist activity in the Old Continent.

In 2022, there were 16 attacks in seven EU member countries. The vast majority, namely 12, were recorded in Italy, but in all cases, they had an extreme left-wing or anarchist background.

Islamist attacks were only two in 2022. However, more than 300 people planning such attacks were arrested, most of them in France. One attack had motifs related to the far-right. Since 2017, when there were over 200 attacks, their number has significantly decreased. However, Europol expects that from 2023 the statistics will rise again.

Bernd Riegert, Deutsche Welle

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