Erdogan eyes regional dominance in post-Assad Syria shake-up

Since the onset of the conflict in Syria, Turkey has supported opposition groups. Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has often referred to the Russia-backed Bashar al-Assad as a butcher, murderer, and terrorist. Turkey welcomed the overthrow of Assad's regime, offering assistance to the new authorities and opening an embassy in Damascus two days later.

Unofficially, Erdoğan is considered the "grey eminence" behind the successes of the HTS army, a militant group called Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, and the Syrian National Army, sponsored by Turkey, in Aleppo and the capture of Damascus.

Undoubtedly, for Ankara, the collapse of the regime that ruled Syria for 24 years is advantageous. Turkey has the opportunity not only to strengthen its influence in the region and secure its southern border but also to use its cooperation with the new authorities to achieve the ambitious plan of building a major gas hub.

Turkey already plays a significant role in the region. Through two export lines, TurkStream transports approximately 14 billion cubic metres of gas to Europe. The maximum capacity of this route is about 32 billion cubic metres. It is also considering expanding the TANAP pipeline to deliver gas through Bulgaria to Serbia and onwards to Hungary. Ankara is additionally developing its storage capabilities and negotiating new supplies from Turkmenistan, which could flow through Turkey to Europe and is also discussing LNG deliveries with the US.

Ankara has provided Bulgaria with access to its terminals and transmission network for 13 years. It welcomed Vladimir Putin's proposal for joint participation in building a gas hub in the Black Sea. However, Ankara's ambitions are much broader. Erdoğan thinks globally.

To build a global gas distribution centre, Turkey needs access to new resources and connections with other significant players in the global market. The al-Assad regime has stood in its way for years. In 2009, Qatar proposed funding the construction of a vast 1,770-kilometre-long pipeline from offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and onwards to Turkey. The project collapsed just two years later because Bashar al-Assad did not agree to it. Why? One reason was the gas dealings with Moscow, to which the regime owed debts.

According to Dr Tymon Pastucha from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Syria's potential as a transit country can still be utilised.

This issue will be particularly important for Turkey, which wants to become a regional energy hub, so it can be assumed that it will be interested in infrastructure development and engaged in stabilising the region. A similar remark can be made about the Persian Gulf countries, such as Iraq or Qatar - says Tymon Pastucha to money.pl.

The pipeline investment, estimated at at least 9 billion pounds in the previous decade, is, however, a serious and time-consuming endeavour. Potential profits would be delayed.

The development of gas infrastructure is not, however, a certainty due to the expansion of LNG, which may become more attractive than long-lasting and capital-intensive investments in pipelines. Therefore, the return to the concept of investments in new pipelines in Syria cannot be considered certain. Again, we return to political issues: how stable will the situation in Syria be to justify such investments - points out Pastucha.

However, Turkey could benefit from acquiring concessions for extraction companies from the new authorities, especially since it already has a pipeline connection with Syria through Aleppo, extending to the gas-rich fields of the Palmyra region.

According to the SANA (Syrian Arab News Agency), the potential daily gas production from the seven gas fields around Palmyra is estimated at over 7 million cubic metres. The latest major discovery in 2021 in the Zamlat al-Mahr 1 region in Palmyra confirmed Syria's gas potential. The total underground gas reserves in this country are estimated at about 300 billion cubic metres (for comparison, the most resource-rich country, Russia, has reserves of nearly 48 trillion cubic metres, which is over 150 times more).

However, to benefit from them, Turkey would have to invest in repairing facilities that have been targets in the ongoing war since 2011. Let's recall that in 2010, Syria produced about 9 billion cubic metres of gas annually - according to a report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

However, the game is not only about onshore deposits. A potential agreement with Damascus regarding the exploration and exploitation of offshore deposits off the coast of Syria would allow Erdoğan to take another step in the competition for access to fields with Cyprus, Greece, and Israel.

Let's remember that the dispute over resources located south of Cyprus fuels the Turkish-Greek conflict over the island. The fight over gas and rights to concessions has been ongoing here for over a decade (the island itself has been divided since 1974). New discoveries only exacerbate it, as the exploration licences granted to companies by Cyprus overlap with those issued by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for Turkish consortia, such as Turkish Petroleum.

In 2011, Syria planned to issue three licences for gas exploration in its territorial waters. However, these plans were suspended due to the outbreak of the civil war in the country.

Erdoğan has already indicated that he is counting on the stabilisation of the situation in Syria. He has announced that if the new authorities request it, Turkey is ready to train the Syrian army. Ankara also hopes that Turkish companies will be given priority in rebuilding Syria. Turkey has taken in the largest number of refugees from this country, providing them with suitable living conditions.