Decreasing ranks: Ukraine faces mobilisation crisis amid war

In 2022, many were eager to fight, but there was a shortage of weapons. Now the situation has reversed. There are weapons, but fewer people willing to fight," noted veteran and military analyst Evhen Dykyi in the Vechir.LIVE programme. His statement was discussed on Tuesday by Ukrainian media, including the Unian agency.

Partners are prepared to supply us with equipment, but they may consider that we have too few people ready to fight," the Ukrainian veteran observed. "Moreover, they are somewhat aware of this. They're already asking: You keep requesting more weapons, but who will use them? Equipment delivery is a matter for the West, and our responsibility is mobilisation, he added.

Dykyi is a well-regarded Ukrainian military analyst, commentator, and veteran of the war with Russia. Referring to the gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, he stated that the key issue for the entire front is ensuring reserves. - Mobilisation, actions behind the front lines are at the heart of the crisis we are in. Changing the generals in command at the front will not change this, he added.

He also clearly referred to the recent decision of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who entrusted the command of a critically challenging defence section near Pokrovske to General Mykhailo Drapaty. The decision surprises experts because General Drapaty is expected to manage the battle and simultaneously remain the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. This marks the third decision to change the commander in the region within a year.

Martial law in Ukraine has been extended, and conscription is ongoing. It includes all men aged 25 to 60 and volunteers aged 18 to 25. There is growing controversy around the actions of Territorial Recruitment Centre employees, who stop men in public places: bars, gyms, and on the street. It was reported that around 100 TRC employees and police officers appeared at a concert in Kyiv to select conscripts from the audience.

This pressure has altered the country. In city streets, you practically don't see middle-aged men unless they are in uniform. Civilians stay at home, fearing arrest. During my last trip, I was checked six times on the street. If I didn't have my passport, I would have been detained under the pretext of evading the army, says Borys Tynka, a Pole and tourist guide in Odesa.

People don't want to talk about the war. Any mention of it causes divisions and arguments. Particularly keen is the discourse around the possible conscription of boys aged 18-25. I haven't met anyone who supports it. However, I spoke with several mothers who, just in case, sent their sons abroad. They wouldn’t change that decision for anything," adds Tynka.

Western countries are putting pressure on Ukraine, demanding the lowering of the mobilisation age. National Security Advisor to President Trump, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit should be 18. According to him, such a decision could help stabilise the situation at the front because Ukraine faces serious staffing shortages.

President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to these suggestions, emphasising that mobilising more people without providing better armaments would not have the desired effect. He considered it "unfair" on the part of the West to simultaneously limit the supply of long-range weapons and pressure Ukraine on mobilising young people.

An appeal titled "Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine" was even published by the opposition English-language service The Moscow Times. "By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future," the commentary stated.