China's nuclear carrier ambitions set to shift global naval power

Only two countries in the world currently operate nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The United States has 11 such carriers (Nimitz-class, gradually being replaced by the Gerald R. Ford class), and France has one, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Construction of the successor to the latter – the aircraft carrier provisionally named PANG (porte-avions de nouvelle génération, French for new-generation aircraft carrier) – has already begun.

The American and French aircraft carriers, apart from being equipped with nuclear power plants, are also CATOBAR class vessels – where planes launch from them using catapults and land with the help of arresting cables. This solution provides aircraft carriers with the largest combat capabilities.

China currently operates three aircraft carriers – Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian (which is undergoing sea trials). The newest and largest, displacing about 89,000 tonnes, Fujian is also a CATOBAR class vessel, but – unlike the American and French counterparts – has conventional propulsion.

Beijing's plan anticipates that only the fourth, currently under construction, 004 carrier, will have nuclear propulsion.

Information about this vessel began to surface around 2018. The China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, responsible for its construction, revealed at that time that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier would join the list of ships built by this company, and one of the industry services reported on the commencement of steel cutting for the hull of the new large vessel.

According to publicly available information, the new aircraft carrier is expected to displace over 123,000 tonnes – slightly more than American supercarriers, which will give the Chinese vessel the first place among the largest warships in the world.

For years, work on the 004 type aircraft carrier – due to the lack of specific, official information – was the basis for numerous guesses and speculations. It seems that the situation has changed due to a recent discovery made by a team from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.

As reported by the Space 24 service, American scientists analysing the work conducted by China on the outskirts of the city of Leshan suspected that a plutonium production reactor was being built there. However, analysis of available satellite images concluded that China is constructing a prototype reactor for a large warship.

This claim is supported by both satellite image analysis and data from available tender documentation, environmental studies conducted, and reports of complaints by local residents.

Although there is a long way from building a prototype reactor to completing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the appearance of such vessels in the Chinese fleet will mean a significant change in the balance of power.

Aircraft carriers such as Liaoning or Shandong, although impressive and important for propaganda, have limited capabilities. They have a small air group and limited autonomy, and aircraft take off from them using a bow ramp – a part of the deck resembling a ski jump.

This solution simplifies the design but impacts the combat capabilities of the aircraft carrier. Heavier aircraft, such as early warning and control aircraft, cannot use it. Moreover, combat aircraft taking off in this manner must be as light as possible, which means they take off with incomplete weapons and fuel supplies.

This can even be seen in the materials provided by the Chinese Navy, where J-15 aircraft taking off from aircraft carriers are either unarmed or have only lightweight short-range air-to-air missiles on their mounts.

This problem can be partially solved with UPAZ-1A kits purchased by China from Russia, allowing for so-called "buddy tanking." This is air refuelling in which the role of the fuel donor is played not by a specialised air tanker but by another aircraft of the same class (in this case, a combat aircraft). Although Beijing has such kits, there is so far no confirmation that they have been used on aircraft carriers.

This is why China's plan for a potential military conflict with the United States has been based for years on the old, Soviet-era A2/AD concept (anti-access/area denial) and – as emphasised by Paweł Behrendt on the Konflikty service – "was an attempt to apply the known from land operations in-depth defence to the sea."

The entry into service of Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carriers can completely change this situation. Moreover – as Paweł Behrendt notes – China does not have to replicate the American concept, according to which the aircraft carrier is the main strike force at sea, covered by other vessels.

Instead – as noted by the British think-tank IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies) – the backbone of the strike forces of the Chinese Navy can be missile destroyers, such as the 055 type ships equipped with, among others, YJ-21 ballistic missiles. These are the largest units in their class in the world with a displacement reaching 14,000 tonnes, armed with 112 universal vertical launch systems.

Nuclear aircraft carriers would then be reduced to the role of providing escort and air support, with the main strike force consisting of ships with ballistic and cruise missiles.

Such organised teams of the Chinese fleet may be capable of supporting a potential landing on Taiwan, fighting against the enemy's fleet, but also launching powerful missile strikes on American bases in the Pacific, such as Guam or Wake.