Central Asia's Strategic Shift: Excluding Russia from "Birlestik-2024" Exercises

Exercises under the name "Birlestik-2024" are planned for July in Central Asia. It's a strategic region for Russia, but Vladimir Putin's country has one significant problem. Everything would be fine if not for the fact that the Russians themselves were not invited to the manoeuvres. What are their neighbours conjuring up?

Military personnel from Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan will participate in the exercises at the Ojmasza training ground in Kazakhstan and on Cape Tokmak in the Caspian Sea.

These will be large-scale exercises. A thousand soldiers will participate, using tanks, fighters, ships, and infantry vehicles. The manoeuvre scenarios include combat operations, logistics, and medical assistance.

As reported by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, one of the elements of the exercises is to be the "reclaiming" by marine infantry and special forces of an island occupied by "terrorist groups." That is actions against the so-called "little green men," in which Russia specializes.

The organizers also emphasize international cooperation, improvement of management and command, and the exchange of experiences. Joint exercises are supposed to help increase the professionalism of military personnel.

An Azerbaijani think tank called STEM has been monitoring the situation for a long time. As its members indicate, this type of exercise format, common to the five countries, has been promoted for a long time. As proposed, the alliance might serve as a safeguard for the sovereignty of all the countries involved.

Moreover, for the cooperating countries, a key moment was when they established closer and, at the same time, bilateral military relations with Turkey.

Analysts at STEM emphasized that this marks the beginning of a new era for two historical regions: the South Caucasus and Central Asia. They noted that military integration is now being added to the ongoing political and economic integration processes between the regions. This integration will hold great significance in the fight against great power states.

In their opinion, Azerbaijan is primarily the driving force behind integration actions. One of the priorities is security on the Trans-Caspian route. This means that the transport infrastructure also constitutes one of the priority points of the soldiers' exercises.

The exercises "Birlestik-2024" are closely watched by Russia. Of all the cooperation, what is most disturbing for Moscow is Kazakhstan's behaviour. The lack of an invitation for Russia to the exercises may indicate that Moscow's influence in this region is waning.

According to pro-Kremlin activists, Kazakhstan's behaviour related to the exercises is an ambiguous signal.

In an interview with the "General Newspaper of the Leningrad Region," Vladimir Shapavalov, a Russian pro-Kremlin political scientist, stated that Kazakhstan maintains a friendly attitude towards Russia. However, he noted that Kazakhstan also permits certain actions that, although not directly against Russia, can be interpreted ambiguously. He mentioned that this particularly concerns relations with the West and military exercises..