Belarus's deepening ties with Russia: A tale of dependency and control

Belarus is under increasing influence from Russia. This process of strengthening ties between the countries has been ongoing for a long time and accelerated in the months before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The armies of both countries conducted joint maneuvers that facilitated the attack on Kyiv. The Belarusian dictator, though skilfully defending against Putin's demands, is increasingly dependent on him.

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Issues regarding the relationship between the two dictators and each country's place in the structure that the leader of the Kremlin is constructing worldwide were the subject of the podcast "Dangerous Liaisons" on TOK FM. Host Thomas Orchowski discussed Belarus's dependency on Russia with guest, Michał Kacewicz. "Putin does not like Lukashenko. He never did," pointed out the journalist from Biełsat TV, author of books about Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko.

The expert emphasised that the "complete subordination" of Belarus to Russia was solidified at two key moments. The first was the rigged elections and the dramatic events that followed in 2020. The second is the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

However, the most important reason for this dependency is sanctions. "The export of Belarus to the European Union is at this point reduced to an absolute minimum. Belarus, being a landlocked country without access to seaports, has also been cut off from transit and communication routes leading to the West. About 70 percent of Belarus's trade is with Russia, and the rest with China and Asian countries," explained the podcast guest.

Over the last two years, Lukashenko has resisted using the Belarusian military in Russian warfare in Ukraine. According to Kacewicz, the reason might have been fear of his own society and uncertainty about how the Belarusian army would behave.

Lukashenko has no choice but to be completely loyal to Putin, according to the expert. A journalist from the station launched in 2007 by TVP, broadcasting in Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian, believes that without Lukashenko, Belarus will be difficult to control.

Belarusians, now broken by the regime, are rebelling more and more. On Monday, March 25, outside their homeland, they celebrated Freedom Day, commemorating the declaration of independence proclaimed in 1918.

Celebrating this day within the country is punishable by imprisonment, similar to how, in communist Poland, it was forbidden to celebrate the anniversary of the adoption of the May 3rd Constitution.

This week, marches organised by the Belarusian community have taken place in many cities in Poland. The rallies were a voice of protest against political repression in Belarus.

Source: TOK FM