Asteroid 2024 YR4: Slim risk of Earth impact sparks concern
Asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike the Earth in 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood at 1.2%, and astronomers are closely monitoring the situation.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 27th December 2024 in Chile as part of the ATLAS programme, which aims to detect asteroids that threaten Earth. Its diameter ranges from 40 to 100 metres. The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) agree that the probability of it striking Earth is 1.2%.
Threat to Earth
The asteroid has been classified as 3 on the 11-point Torino scale, indicating that it requires astronomers' attention. An object of this size typically impacts Earth every few thousand years, causing substantial damage in the area of impact. ESA stresses that initial collision probability estimates might be exaggerated but could change over time.
Observing the asteroid might prove difficult because its orbit will move away from Earth in the coming months. ESA believes it's possible that current observations might not suffice to rule out a collision in 2032 completely. Another chance for observation will arise in 2028. "An asteroid of this size strikes the Earth on average every few thousand years and can cause significant damage in the region where it impacts," stated ESA in a release.
