Zelensky's victory plan: Bold ambitions meet skeptical experts

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a "victory plan" for the war with the Russian Federation during his visit to the USA. Do Ukrainian expectations have a chance to materialise? Experts are doubtful.

Zelensky presented the plan to Congress and two presidential candidates in the USA elections: Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. He primarily sees Washington's stance as a chance for ultimate victory.

The "victory plan" includes four key points. The first is a demand for security guarantees from the West, similar to the mutual defence pact within NATO membership. Next is the desire to continue the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region to secure territorial "assets" in negotiations and permission to use Western weapons on Federation territory. This involves a request for specific weapon systems, with a list already prepared. The most important non-armament-related demand is international financial aid for the Ukrainian economy.

The most unrealistic seems to be the demand for security guarantees that would elevate Ukraine's status to that of NATO member states. This is particularly difficult because Ukraine is primarily at war, which automatically means that such guarantees cannot be given at the moment.

- More serious security guarantees and military assistance than those contained in bilateral agreements signed by Ukraine with several countries are unlikely – notes Dr Mariusz Materniak, an expert on Eastern affairs. - And certainly, they cannot be analogous to those provided to NATO countries. That is fantasy, and Volodymyr Zelensky should be aware of this.

Zelensky's associates have long claimed that the President of Ukraine is tired and discouraged, and his decisions are often lacking in sensitivity. While a year ago this was mentioned discreetly in Kyiv, now Ukrainian officials are openly discussing it. Furthermore, Zelensky still seems not to understand the military and the principles of war. "Freezing the war means defeat for me" – he often repeats and continues to demand further strikes on the Russians.

Again, he will raise expectations, and then there will be an unpleasant situation, notes Dr. Materniak.

Ukrainians have long demanded the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons against Russian targets. They argue that this would allow for more effective deterrence of the Russian advance. This mainly concerns long-range ground-to-ground and air-to-ground missiles, which could hit Russian logistics – bases, fuel and ammunition depots, airfields, and service and industrial centres.

- I wouldn't count on the lifting of all restrictions on the use of Western weapons in Russia – notes Dr Materniak. - Here, the United States is very afraid of escalation. Further arms deliveries are likely, but in my opinion, still with limited possibilities for their use.

- Even if Ukraine gets permission to use Western weapons in attacks on Russian territory and receives new weapons such as AGM-158 or AGM-154 JSOW missiles, yes, the Russians will bear the costs, but the open question is how much impact they will have on Russian decisions – asks Dr Michał Piekarski, a security specialist from the University of Wrocław.

- The scope of damage that can be inflicted is large but not decisive, and if anything can be expected, it is a ceasefire along the current front lines in Ukraine – adds Dr Piekarski.

This solution, in turn, is unacceptable in Kyiv, which stands firmly on its position that a ceasefire while maintaining the currently occupied territories is out of the question. Hence the pressure on the West regarding the use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia. This, in turn, is unacceptable for Washington.

- In this case, there is another option – notes Dr Materniak. - It is enough for the West to help Ukraine develop its capabilities in terms of drones or long-range missiles. This, to a large extent, can meet Ukrainian needs.

One of the points of Zelensky's plan is financial support for the Ukrainian industry, not only the defence industry but also the civilian sector, which will allow for the rebuilding of Ukraine after the war's destruction.

- Economic and financial aid for Ukraine does not raise major controversies, and in this case, it will probably be the easiest to realise the demands – believes Dr Materniak.

In Kyiv, officials emphasize that the biggest problem is ensuring adequate conditions for citizens. As a result of the war, about 4 million Ukrainians have completely or partially lost their homes. As they point out, as much as 57% of Ukraine's budget is allocated to security and defence. Social assistance is not a priority.

The priority, however, is energy security, and damage to energy systems is so great that, according to UN estimates, it will impact half of Ukraine's total electricity demand in the winter period. In the summer, 73% of thermal power plants were inactive. Experts believe that in the worst-case scenario, citizens in some regions of the country will not have access to electricity for 18 hours a day.

Ukrainians also want the green light for further offensive operations in the Russian Federation's territory. Zelensky believes occupied territories can be a bargaining chip in peace talks with the Kremlin.

- It is not clear what kind of bargaining chip the occupied area near Kursk may be – ponders Dr Piekarski. - Perhaps the willingness to return it to Russia is an incentive for a truce.

- Maybe there are provisions in the plan such as returning all territories, including Crimea and Donbas, in exchange. We do not know the details of the plan, so it could turn out to be a propaganda trick – cautions the scientist. - But the maximum Ukraine can hope for is freezing actions and a ceasefire along the current front line, perhaps with small adjustments. Regaining Crimea or the whole of Donbas is very unlikely – assesses Dr Piekarski.

Both experts agree that Zelensky's expectations are too high and largely unrealistic, and the authorities in Kyiv have difficulty understanding the stance of their Western allies. Thus, they only harm themselves and the cause they are fighting for.

- In my opinion, as I have already indicated, in Ukraine, there is unnecessarily raising of expectations as before the NATO summit in 2023. Here too will be disappointment because the West is still far from understanding the threats and perceiving them as Ukraine or even the eastern flank of NATO does – summarises Dr Materniak.