Women's vote could tip balance as Harris faces tight race

Two days before the election, few experts and observers dare to predict the favourite confidently. This uncertainty extends to those conducting pre-election polls. "Surveys indicate a very close race. If polling errors are as significant as they were four or eight years ago, Trump could secure a decisive victory because Kamala Harris's lead in the polls is narrower than Joe Biden's or Hillary Clinton's," said Prof. Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University in Virginia.

In a poll conducted by his school in collaboration with the "Washington Post," Harris had a one-point lead among voters in seven key states and was slightly ahead in four. "Pollsters say they have corrected the errors of underestimating Trump—some even fear they might overestimate his support this time. But it's very hard to verify, and we'll only know when the election results come in," he added.

According to Rozell, despite this, Harris holds a slight advantage in the "Rust Belt" states: Michigan and Wisconsin, with Trump leading in the southern and southwestern states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. If these results hold, the outcome in Pennsylvania—the largest state with closely divided support for both candidates—would determine the winner.

According to the political scientist, the key to Trump's victory will be to reduce Harris's advantage among women, who comprise a larger part of the electorate. Meanwhile, Harris must appeal to white voters—especially white men—among whom Trump has an advantage. He also notes that one of the main dividing lines is education level, with Harris having a significant lead among those with higher education, but trailing among voters without formal qualifications.

Rozell believes that Harris's "shy female voters" could surprise observers this year. These are women in conservative communities and families who are reluctant to publicly admit their Democratic support but may vote for Harris due to concerns about restrictions on abortion rights.

This election campaign, the first presidential race since the Supreme Court's decision—backed by Trump's appointees—to overturn the federal right to abortion, sees Democrats actively targeting the wives of conservative husbands, emphasising the confidentiality of their vote. "You can vote any way you want, and no one will know," states the voiceover in an election advert featuring actress Julia Roberts.

Rozell notes that this is a real phenomenon that could influence the elections. "A few years ago, while researching for a book about the religious right movement, many women asked me to turn off the recorder during interviews before honestly sharing their views on abortion and related restrictions," Rozell recounts.

However, the political scientist claims decisive events in the campaign's final days could prove pivotal, such as Trump's derogatory comments about Puerto Ricans during a rally in New York, his remarks about threatening Liz Cheney (a key Republican politician backing Harris), or Joe Biden's slip, which Republicans claim involved calling Trump supporters "trash" (Biden clarifies that he described a comedian who insulted Puerto Ricans as trash).

Dr. Nicholas Higgins, a political scientist from North Greenville University in South Carolina, offers a slightly different perspective. He suggests Harris could surprise by winning in North Carolina, where a Democratic candidate has triumphed only once in nearly 50 years (Barack Obama in 2008). Conversely, Trump could win in Pennsylvania. "Regarding North Carolina, I see encouraging trends for her in early voting. For instance, in Buncombe County near me, where Democrats typically comprise 50% of voters, early voting turnout has already reached 66%, surpassing Republican levels. These are areas most affected by recent flooding from Hurricane Helene, where less motivated voters, who favour Trump, may prioritise other concerns over voting," said Higgins.

He added that although positive signs for Harris exist at the county level in Pennsylvania polls, a deciding factor in a close race might be Elon Musk's actions. The billionaire organised a lottery, giving away a million dollars daily to voters in key states who signed his political petition for free speech and the right to bear arms.

Not engaging in the legality of this tactic, it's a rather ingenious move. Trump's campaign has thus gathered data on millions of potential supporters. This means they will know on election day who has voted and who might need additional encouragement," Higgins states.

In this scenario, with Harris winning in Wisconsin and Michigan and Trump in Georgia and Arizona, the result would hinge on Nevada—a state with a unique electorate where the outcome is especially hard to predict.

"A large portion of voters there are workers from the entertainment and hospitality industry in Las Vegas—an industry with particularly high personnel turnover, making it challenging for pollsters to gauge this electorate. These are also people with somewhat different priorities than the rest of the country," analyses the political scientist.

However, Higgins admits he's uncertain his theories will stand. "My confidence level is close to zero. I wouldn't bet a penny on my predictions. But if forced, I would point to a Trump victory," he concluded.