Wolski's analysis: Russian tank losses and NATO's challenge ahead

Jarosław Wolski, a popular and respected military analyst who often shares insights on the war in Ukraine, has estimated the number of tanks Russia could have lost in the conflict and their production capabilities. This analysis reveals concerning news for NATO.

In February, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian military had suffered the loss of over 3,000 tanks as well as 5,600 armoured vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles.

The total number comprised approximately 1,120 tanks, about 2,000 armoured vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles that the Russians lost in 2023. These figures are lower than the previous year; a change other experts attribute to the evolving conditions on the battlefield and the strategies implemented by both conflict parties.

Moscow can potentially withstand about three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from reserves, even if they are of a lesser technical standard, regardless of its ability to produce new equipment - it was noted in the report at the time.

The esteemed expert Jarosław Wolski has looked into the matter deeply and is known for presenting situations based on concrete figures rather than propaganda.

Based on his assessment and experiences from other conflicts, Wolski believes Russian tank losses could be about 20% higher.

This marks the end of the positive outlook because, despite such significant losses, the situation with Russian tanks is far from hopeless. They maintain large reserves and have sustained ongoing production. Jarosław Wolski estimates their annual tank production to be between 400 to 600 units.

Conversely, NATO countries are only capable of adding 200-300 tanks to their arsenals.