Western Donetsk: The next target in Russia's unfolding offensive

The American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, has detailed recent military actions near Avdiivka, a Ukrainian city taken over by Russian forces in mid-February.

It seems that Ukrainian forces thwarted an attack by a Russian mechanized battalion near Avdiivka on 30 March - reports the ISW in its recent report released overnight from Sunday to Monday UK time.

According to Ukrainian reports, on Saturday, Russian forces dispatched 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles for a significant mechanized assault near Tonenke. "Geolocated photos published on 31 March depict a considerable number of destroyed and damaged Russian armoured vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka)", - stated ISW.

"The magnitude of the Russian mechanized assault, occurring on 30 March, is noteworthy"—highlight ISW analysts. This marks the most extensive attack by Russian forces with a mechanized battalion on Avdiivka since the onset of the Russian offensive there in late October 2023.

According to the Institute, the Avdiivka area in the Donetsk front may be a focal point for Russian command.

"The Russian command might direct its expected offensive operation for late spring to early summer 2024 on the western Donetsk front, aiming to build on the slow yet steady progress of Russian forces in this sector" - the new ISW report indicates.

Ukrainian officials have recently cautioned that Russian forces are gathering military personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, close to Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and in the western Zaporizhzhia front.

"However, ISW maintains that Russian forces are likely capable of executing a coordinated large-scale offensive operation in only one operational direction at any given time due to their own manpower and strategic planning constraints", - the report notes.

Source: Institute for the Study of War