Victory Day amidst shadows: Russia's strength and Ukraine's resilience

9 May in Russia is celebrated as Victory Day. A year ago, the public expected that the upcoming counteroffensive would bring a great victory for the Ukrainians. Today, as Colonel Maciej Korowaj tells o2.pl, it resembles a boxing match. "Neither of the boxers is on the ropes, but Russia has more strength," the analyst believes.

Victory Day is a national holiday in Russia. In Moscow, in memory of "the triumph over Nazism," a parade is held that veterans attend. This year, the parade will likely showcase destroyed Western equipment from the battlefields of Ukraine.

According to analysts and experts, the scenario has changed today. The Ukrainians are being pushed back, the Russian threat looms over the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, and President Zelensky, previously hoisted in triumph, faces increasing criticism. The same goes for the commander-in-chief he appointed, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy.

Ukraine's streak of luck came to an end with the failed counteroffensive last year. There's a shortage of ammunition at the front, and the country's leaders are calling up increasingly younger defenders. But a decisive move in this standoff is yet to be made. However, as Colonel Maciej Korowaj of the reserves tells o2.pl, Russia has held onto more strength.

Maciej Korowaj, a former Military Intelligence Service soldier with experience in Eastern Europe, describes the war as akin to a boxing match. He urges, keeping to the metaphor, "not to judge the match after just one round".

"[Russia - ed.] is waiting for a strategic decision on whether to continue a 'balanced' war or to deliver a decisive, crushing blow. Of course, it bombs and destroys Ukraine and its infrastructure, but it's not applying all its might. Today, Russia wants Europe to grow weary and indifferent to the war. Yet the primary objective - eradicating the perceived Ukrainian 'threat to Moscow' - hasn't been met, despite establishing a corridor to Crimea. At this point, we cannot talk about a Russian victory, which would mean driving Ukrainian forces out of the territories east of the Dnieper River," says Colonel Korowaj in conversation with o2.pl.

The expert also believes that the West will adopt a more aggressive supply policy. At the turn of last year and this year, Ukraine faced a critical shortage of ammunition. The depletion of Western stockpiles was becoming evident. Now, supply levels have picked up again.

This raises, the colonel indicates, the earlier question. Continue a "balanced war," or end the conflict like a boxing match - with a single, powerful knockout punch? But that would not be the outcome the Kremlin is hoping for.

Of course, presenting this as a success to the Russian public by capturing one more region might work, but in Korowaj's view, it won't be a victory in the West and China.

What's more alarming, the analyst is convinced that one cannot discount - though he notes, "it's a mad plan" - the possibility of Russia attacking NATO countries to... bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

The analyst describes the current state of conflict as "a war of small victories". He notes that Russia has not only faced defeats. Its loss was relinquishing control over the western part of the Black Sea, benefiting Ukraine by easing the sale of agricultural produce. However, last year saw significantly more defeats for Ukraine.

Despite regaining part of the Black Sea basin, the "southern corridor" wasn't entirely disrupted. Thanks to a tactical move by General Mordvichev, the Russians took Avdiivka, hampering Ukrainian artillery access to Donetsk. In 2022, the long and valiantly defended Mariupol was captured. Last year saw Bakhmut fall. On 9 May, the Russians could celebrate the capture of Avdiivka.

Returning to the boxing match metaphor: for now, Ukraine is ahead on points, despite the recent round being costly in terms of losses. But none of the boxers is "on the ropes," and nothing suggests that's about to change. Ukraine retains mobility, it continues to fight even though Russia has saved more strength for a powerful, knockout blow, yet it hasn't been delivered - believes Colonel Korowaj.

No clear victory or defeat is visible on either side, says historian and diplomat Professor Hieronim Grala. In a discussion with o2.pl, he mentions that the "Russian tsar has not been dethroned, and the 'Ukrainian Mahatma' (a term Professor Grala borrows from a book by Zbigniew Parafianowicz), President Zelensky, is seeing a significant fall in popularity. This is mainly due to his error in sidelining Zaluzhny in favour of General Syrsky, who lacks public trust and support and is almost seen as a traitor. And it's during his command that the front lines have moved back, a trend that continues.

"Russians will display some destroyed Western equipment at the parade, which will be counted as a success for them. Very propagandistic, yet still a success. I must say I'm somewhat surprised by the disdainful reaction in the West, as they did the exact same thing. Destroyed Russian equipment was even exhibited in our Castle Square, hence looking down upon Russians for flaunting destroyed enemy equipment seems rather hypocritical," says the historian.

He adds that the Russian military has learned to fight effectively "frankly speaking, in the meantime—after the embarrassing own offensive in 2022 and the undeniable successes of the subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive."

"Russians have honed their skills in electronic warfare, making drones harder to target, while Ukraine, struggling with a chronic lack of ammunition, becomes an easier target," he states.

Ukraine, as he believes, is weakening. The prospect of defeat is increasingly troubling the Russian and Ukrainian society, whose promises of a swift victory for a year had buoyed. And the good news is sparse. Following Mariupol, and now Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as Professor Grala says, the belief in the overwhelming technological superiority of the West providing Ukraine with an outright victory is fading.

"It's been seen that Challenger and Abrams tanks too can be destroyed, and HIMARS systems can be located and taken out. Therefore, Ukrainians, as has happened so often, are constructing a Thermopylae myth around the fallen defenders at home, but the ranks of the fallen grow, while victories dwindle. And worse still, a significant number of potential 'Spartans' opt for safety abroad," reports Professor Grala.

Thus, the Kremlin looks forward to the 9 May anniversary celebrations. In the eyes of the historian, one of the few solaces might be that out of numerous historical occasions, the Russians can now primarily commemorate the victory of the Great Patriotic War.

"Desperately they seek anchors in history. Currently, they boast the unification of throne and altar and are on the verge of proclaiming almost a religious crusade in Ukraine. Turning to native cults, once again they start to venerate Stalin’s appeals to the Mother of Moscow. Fighting against 'crusaders, Latins, and Lutherans' centuries ago, today they oppose 'geyropa, degenerates, and LGBT' - concludes the former diplomat."

Łukasz Maziewski, o2.pl