US faces tough choice on Ukraine's long-range missile usage
"New York Times," citing its sources, reports that US intelligence believes that if permission is granted for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to target deep inside Russia, Moscow's reaction will be significant. We explain which weapons are being referred to.
As part of Western support, Ukraine has so far received three types of long-range weapons: American ATACMS ballistic missiles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and SCALP-EG missiles supplied respectively by the United Kingdom and France. All of these have already been used to attack Russians, but only in Ukrainian territories occupied by them. Their use to strike targets inside Russia requires additional approval from the United States, which President Joe Biden's administration has not granted so far.
U.S. reluctant to grant permission for attacks deep inside Russia
Analysts highlight the potential risks and uncertain benefits of such a significant decision. They point out that Ukrainian armed forces have a limited number of these missiles. It is also unclear whether Western allies will decide to supply more of these types of missiles to Kyiv and in what quantity.
It is uncertain what steps the US President will take on this issue, who on Thursday, 26 September, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Zelensky is lobbying for permission to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, which would result in taking the conflict onto Russian soil.
"New York Times" notes that the Kremlin often uses threats to discourage the West from supplying Ukraine with more advanced weaponry. Critics of Biden and his allies argue that they are too easily intimidated by Putin's rhetoric. On the other hand, supporters point out that this approach has prevented Russia from exhibiting aggressive reactions.
High-impact weapons
ATACMS ballistic missiles were supplied to Ukrainians in two variants – M39, with a range of about 160 kilometres, and M39A1, with a range reaching even 300 kilometres.
Launched from aircraft, Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles can theoretically hit targets up to 500 kilometres away. They have warheads weighing about 450 kilograms. Their advantage is that they have proven difficult to detect even by the best Russian anti-aircraft systems like the Pantsir-S1 or S-400. They are made with stealth technology.
US intelligence suggests that Russia could respond to permission to use such weapons with intensified sabotage and arson operations in Europe and even attacks on American and European military bases.
American officials emphasize that most of the sabotage in Europe is the work of the Russian military intelligence GRU. They assess that in response to approval for Ukraine to use weaponry on Russian territory, Vladimir Putin might opt to intensify the sabotage campaign rather than open attacks on American and European bases to minimize the risk of triggering a more significant conflict.
