US aid delay gives Russia a window to intensify Ukraine front tactics

In the coming time, Ukrainian armed forces will likely continue to struggle with the problem of shortages of artillery ammunition and air defence systems. According to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these shortages directly impact Ukraine's ability to conduct effective defensive operations.

The Institute predicts that the frontline situation will, therefore, likely continue to deteriorate during that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid.

Additionally, Ukraine's limited air defence capabilities enable Russian aviation to inflict severe damage on the Ukrainian defence along the front through gliding bomb attacks. Consequently, Russian forces may continue to take advantage of their operational superiority in the upcoming weeks to achieve further tactical gains and destabilize the Ukrainian defensive line.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to assess that material shortages force Ukraine to economize on ammunition and prioritize limited resources for critical front sectors. This, in turn, increases the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other, less well-supplied sectors.

In the upcoming weeks, Russian forces will likely intensify their offensive operations, missile strikes, and drone attacks to take advantage of the period during which equipment shortages limit Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces may hope that continuous and perhaps intensified missile and drone attacks will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian power network.

Ukraine will likely be in a significantly better operational position by June 2024, regardless of delays in the arrival of American security aid to the frontline. The Russian military command will likely consider significant changes in the wide-scale offensive operation, which it plans to start in June.