Ukrainian strike on Dzhankoy airfield exposes limits of Russian defence

Satellite images have surfaced online showing the aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on the Dzhankoy airfield on 29 April 2024. The airfield's defending S-300/400 system was again helpless against the MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missile and was only saved by chance. We present this attack's background and the weapon's performance.

In a previous attack on the Dzhankoy airfield, an entire battery of the anti-aircraft and anti-missile system S-400 Triumph was destroyed. Another battery of the same system or its predecessor has been merely scratched.

In the photos below, from 26 April to 1 May, you can see a deployed battery that only avoided destruction by moving to another combat position. Apparently, the Ukrainians launched the missile based on outdated data, and the Russians, learning from practice, often change the placement of the system (this is one form of defence). It's possible that, in this case, the location change was made a few hours before the attack.

This resulted in the launched MGM-140 ATACMS missile hitting not directly the battery, but the explosion affected at least one vehicle. It was the largest, so it could have been, for example, a detection radar or a fire control radar. If it was one of the two mentioned types, the battery was effectively put out of action until a new radar was delivered. It's also possible that other vehicles suffered less from shrapnel.

Recently, Ukrainians have greatly increased the frequency of usage of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles, which Russian anti-missile systems cannot handle. Currently, photos or recordings show the action of variants with a cluster munition warhead, so these are M39 or M39A1 variants.

The first is a missile with a range of 164 km equipped only with inertial navigation guidance, and the second is a version with an increased range of 299 km with added satellite navigation, which is supposed to ensure greater impact accuracy. It's worth noting, however, that the Russians have learned to effectively jam the GPS signal, which is a major problem for weapons with lower damaging power, such as GLSDB or M982 Excalibur.

Both missiles contain a cluster munition warhead with hundreds of M74 APAM bomblets. Specifically, the M39 variant carries as many as 950 of them, and the newer M39A1 "only" 300 because more space is allocated for a larger fuel supply.

Each M74 APAM bomblet is a ball with a diameter of 6 cm and a weight of 590 grams, having an effective range of several metres. Inside the tungsten casing, which is the source of deadly shrapnel piercing through bulletproof vests or aircraft plating upon detonation, is a mixture of a powerful explosive charge and an incendiary agent.

This is further scattered over an area and is meant to cause additional ignition, such as leaking fuel from shredded aircraft. The detonation of the bomblets is triggered by a simple impact fuse that activates upon hitting the ground. In the affected area, a soldier has almost no chance of survival unless hidden in a dugout or, for example, an armoured transporter.