Ukrainian military commentator reflects on the impasse in war efforts and the dream of 1991 borders
The ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine is extraordinarily complex. After numerous months of combat, defenders were compelled to forsake Avdiivka, despite offering intense resistance to the invaders. However, any subsequent victories scored by the Russians have proven to be marginal. A significant number of experts candidly acknowledge that the front is at a standstill.
Recent history underscores the fact that the situation can alter unpredictably. However, the scenario is convoluted both at the front line and within governmental quarters. The ensuing months will be pivotal, determining the fate not only of this war but of Ukraine itself.
Even among our Eastern counterparts, optimism is gradually dwindling. A dispassionate, objective calculation fails to deliver positive news. Illia Ponomarenko, a war correspondent for "The Kyiv Independent" who has amassed over 1.2 million followers on the X service (previously Twitter), skilfully encapsulated this predicament during his interview with Onet.
As per the Ukrainian expert, neither faction present is poised for a successful offensive. Each incremental progress made by Russia is met with substantial losses, proving difficult to replenish quickly. Nonetheless, Ukraine is being increasingly thrust into offensives, lacking the necessary resources for a substantial counterattack.
The situation is at an impasse. The Russians have hit a wall, unable to make significant strides. Conversely, Ukraine's capabilities are stunted due to a deficiency of troops, equipment, and ammunition. Their only viable option is to adopt a defensive strategy. This means maintaining control of the territories gained. A defensive infrastructure akin to a Ukrainian 'Surowikin line' would need to be constructed — a fortified defensive line punctuated with minefields, anti-tank impediments and trenches, modeled on the Russian format — Ponomarenko elucidated.
Is it feasible for Ukraine to recover Crimea? "It's universally recognised as impossible"
According to Ponomarenko, chatter about a potential outright victory for Ukraine must be taken with a grain of salt as it merely stems from unwarranted optimism. This talk encompasses not only the recapture of the invaded regions (Donbas and Luhansk), but also the reacquisition of Crimea by Ukraine, which was annexed in 2014.
Convinced, the analyst presumes that the window of opportunity for such a resolution has already been eclipsed, and the Ukrainian government, led by Vladimir Zelensky, should reconsider the benchmarks by which it measures victory for the defending nation.
We need to candidly address what constitutes a feasible victory for Ukraine. If you tune into the TV or listen to Zelensky, you'll hear that victory will be achieved when the 1991 borders are reinstated. The issue here is that this scenario is no longer attainable and the perpetuation of such statements dents morale because it's universally recognised as impossible. For me, victory constitutes the preservation of the Ukrainian state across its existing territories, the attainment of economic prosperity, and the implementation of democratic governance. We would have defended all this against the world's most formidable military, even though we were initially written off by everyone — Ponomarenko underscored.
