Ukraine's tough winter: Could compromise shape war's end?
According to the German weekly Der Spiegel, this winter will be crucial for Ukraine. The article discusses possible scenarios for ending the war and suggests that there are increasing signs of a "bitter compromise" with Russia.
According to "Spiegel," as cited by Belsat, the third winter of the war, which is imminent, will be the hardest for Ukraine. The main reason is that Kyiv's resources are depleting much faster than Russia's. Another issue is Ukraine's dependence on aid from the West, particularly the United States.
What support will be available if Donald Trump returns to the presidency is uncertain. He promised to "end the war in 24 hours," which likely indicates territorial losses. However, a victory for Kamala Harris is also expected to signify America's gradual aid reduction.
Similarly, enthusiasm over the Ukrainian army's progress in the Kursk region has faded. This is especially true as the Russians still have the initiative on the front and are advancing on Pokrovsk. They aim to control the entire Donbas region. Consequently, the mood in Ukraine is worsening.
Compromise with Russia? Ukraine is "bleeding out"
According to "Der Spiegel," for the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, discussions in the Ukrainian capital are considering scenarios in which Ukraine temporarily gives up on fully reclaiming occupied territories, which account for nearly 20% of its land. A high-ranking Ukrainian official confirmed this information.
We believed that victory must mean the unconditional surrender of Putin's Russia. The agreement must also be beneficial for Russia - admits in an interview with the German weekly.
"Spiegel" points out that the war has resulted in losses of about 80,000 Ukrainians and 200,000 Russians. However, these losses are more painful for Kyiv. Ukraine is devastated as a result of military actions. Several million of its inhabitants have left the country. The divorce rate is high, and the birth rate is low. The country is simply "bleeding out."
Support for continuing the fight is dwindling. According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the number of people willing to persevere in the liberation struggle for as long as it takes fell from 72% to 63% from May to September. Among the young, the inclination towards compromise is growing.
Some circles in Ukraine, however, refuse to accept that talks with Putin will take place. According to some, Ukraine will still be under threat even with a truce.
The enemy will not stop, regardless of political agreements. There might be a break for three or four years, after which everything will continue - believes Ukrainian officer Andriy Nazarenko.
