Ukraine's strategic value: Lithium reserves and US diplomacy
At the start of January, Keith Kellogg, who is designated to serve as Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, was meant to meet with Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv but delayed his visit. Kyiv regards this as a positive sign because Kellogg intends to better prepare for the visit. Let's revisit the bargaining chips Ukraine has at its disposal in negotiations with the USA.
Kellogg, who held several advisory roles for Trump during his first term, is set to be the main official responsible for fulfilling the president-elect's promise of ending Russia's conflict against Ukraine. On Tuesday, the Reuters agency reported, citing its own sources, that Kellogg postponed his trip to Kyiv and other European capitals until after the new US president's inauguration (that is, after 20 January). The reason for this decision was not disclosed.
Speaking on Ukrainian television Tuesday, Mykhailo Podolak, an advisor to the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, described the development as a highly positive signal. He noted that it reflects the transitional administration of Mr. Trump, who already possesses a nuanced understanding of the conflict, the motivations of the Russian Federation, and the futility of expecting reciprocal actions from Russia without leveraging specific and impactful tools to exert influence.
The postponement of Kellogg's visit signals that the Trump administration thoroughly analyses insights from intelligence agencies think tanks, and other organizations. According to a report by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, citing Mykhailo Podolak, this approach demonstrates a more imaginative consideration of the conflict's dynamics, potential solutions, and the feasibility of their implementation.
"White gold" for America?
Ukraine may have a valuable bargaining chip in talks with the Trump administration regarding the potential end of the conflict with Russia. - Zelensky's victory plan was evidently crafted for Trump and the Republicans. There are two nods to Trump within it, noted Dr Daniel Szeligowski from the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
The expert identified two key aspects: the first is a commitment to jointly exploit Ukraine's natural resources, which the United States sees as strategically important in its competition with China. The second involves a tentative but notable idea of substituting American forces in Europe with Ukrainian troops, aligning with ongoing discussions in the U.S. about reducing its military presence in the region.
"Trump card" of Zelensky
In November, The New York Times reported that Kyiv is looking for ways to appeal to Donald Trump's well-known transactional approach. Zelensky's Trump card might be resources: lithium, titanium, and graphite.
As we wrote at that time, Ukraine has four lithium deposits. In 2022, researchers from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine estimated that these deposits collectively might contain 500,000 metric tonnes of the resource. One of these deposits lies in a territory occupied by Russia. The remaining deposits are in territories administered by Ukraine, with the Shevchenkivskiy deposit on the front line.
These deposits are not currently being exploited. Ukrainian lithium, also known as "white gold," is located up to 300 metres below ground, making its extraction more challenging and expensive than, for instance, open-pit mining in South America.
Lithium produces batteries for mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and electric vehicles. As a result, the demand for this element is increasing.
