Ukraine's resource deal: Promises, pitfalls, and projections
Experts believe that Ukraine does not possess enough natural resources to satisfy the conditions of the agreement with the USA. From their perspectives, there is no proof of sufficiently large mineral reserves, and those present will be challenging to exploit, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions of the country.
Donald Trump assured that Americans will recover the billions of dollars invested in Ukraine thanks to the rare earth metals agreement. The USA assumes that Ukraine has resources of 20-50 minerals deemed critical, including lithium, graphite, titanium, and uranium. Experts believe their value could exceed 15 trillion dollars, more than twice the federal budget of the USA in 2024.
However, analysts suggest that there is no definitive evidence that Ukraine has significant rare earth mineral resources, and those it does have are minimal compared to the resources of other countries.
Major failure?
The concept for such an agreement originated with Zelensky, who proposed it during his visit to the USA in September. He advocated access to Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for further US support. Although this proposal was presented to both the Trump and Biden administrations, it was not taken seriously.
The final agreement, which is to be signed, outlines the transfer of £280 billion and military equipment to Ukraine. Although the map of potential deposits indicates their presence in various parts of the country, many of these areas are located in conflict zones, including those controlled by Russia. Experts highlight that extracting minerals, especially rare earths, is extremely costly, time-consuming, and, in some areas, even unfeasible.
Recognising the uncertainty regarding resource availability, Trump admitted that deposits may not be as plentiful as anticipated. However, the agreement still aims to transform Ukraine into a significant economic development project that will benefit both parties.
A step toward ending the war
Trump, continuing his efforts to end the war, refuses to send American troops to Ukraine as peacekeeping forces and opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO.
His administration believes that the natural resources agreement will provide Ukraine with appropriate security guarantees because the USA will be interested in protecting its investments. Experts note that for such resources, investments in security can be one of the best guarantees of protecting the country from future threats.
Critics also argue that this idea may be somewhat colonial and insufficient, considering the challenges associated with exploiting Ukraine's natural resources.
