Ukraine's population crisis: Challenges in rebuilding ahead
In the past three years, the population of Ukraine has decreased by as much as 10 million. The country, grappling with conflict against Russia, is struggling not only with the challenge of finding new recruits but also with a lack of workforce. If emigrants do not return to Ukraine after the war, it is uncertain who will undertake the task of rebuilding it.
Russian aggression in Ukraine has exacerbated the already critical demographic situation of the state. In 1990, at the time of regaining independence, the country had 52 million citizens, and this number never increased afterward. This is due to long-standing negative natural population growth and large-scale labour migration. According to a UN report, Ukraine ranked among the top countries with the fastest rate of population decline.
On the eve of the full-scale conflict, Ukraine's population had dropped to 42 million, and by August 2023, it was down to around 36 million. Of this, only 32 million Ukrainians resided in territories controlled by the government in Kyiv, with the remainder in areas occupied by Russia. According to research by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, approximately 29 million people currently live in Ukraine. This significant decline is largely due to the mass migration of Ukrainians fleeing the war, which added to previous years' labour migration.
Equally dramatic, and perhaps worse for population growth, is the significant change in the structure of society's gender and age. As many as 17 million Ukrainians are not economically active. Of these, 8 million are pensioners, and less than 5 million are children under the age of 15. The small number of young people reaching working age poses a significant challenge for Ukraine. Within the next five to seven years, there will already be a workforce shortage, and the number of pensioners will surpass that of workers.
The number of young men of reproductive age has also substantially declined. The conflict has only exacerbated this issue. Before 2022, the average life expectancy for men was 65 years. In 2024, this average had dropped to just 57 years, which was about 17 years shorter than for women.
Mass emigration
According to various estimates, about 8 million people have left Ukraine due to the conflict. Among them, the majority, nearly 60%, are young women of reproductive and working age. A remarkable 83% of them have higher education or are furthering their studies. One-third of the refugees are children. Ukrainian sociologists say that the longer the conflict lasts, the less likely these families are to return to the country.
This would be understandable. The prolonged conflict, the destruction of the country, the state's economic fragility, and the numerous hardships that those returning to Ukraine will face effectively discourage such actions. Especially since over three years of conflict, Ukrainians have managed to settle abroad.
Lack of children
In the last year before the full-scale conflict, the fertility rate in Ukraine was 1.3 children per woman of childbearing age. By 2023, it had dropped to 0.9, and last year it was only 0.7. In 2023, only about 187,000 children were born in Ukraine. In 2024, just 161,000. Meanwhile, in 2023, around 496,000 Ukrainians died, and a year later, approximately 495,000.
The significant drop in fertility was primarily influenced by military actions and uncertainty about the future. As many as 8 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, still treating their displacement as a temporary situation. They mostly live in communal apartments, often in dormitories or other temporary accommodations.
When people have lost their properties, jobs, and certainty about the future, having children moves down the hierarchy of importance. Oleh Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, stated in an interview for Channel 24 that even benefits for having children won't help much.
The scientist stated that to increase the birth rate in Ukraine, it is necessary to create decent living conditions, which is difficult during wartime. He emphasised that according to the Institute's research, an effective labour market and wage levels are the main factors influencing decisions about the willingness to have children. Meanwhile, the government only implemented the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine programme in September last year, to extend through 2040.
However, this is more of an analysis of the current situation and a road map of actions to be taken to improve demographics. So far, no legislative steps have followed. This year, the Ministry of Social Policy plans to "develop practical steps towards Ukraine's demographic balance."
Who will rebuild the country?
The tragic state of Ukrainian demographics directly impacts the mobilisation capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For this reason, President Volodymyr Zelensky was reluctant to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25 for a long time. Young men were to be preserved to ensure Ukraine's future. Ultimately, the difficult situation at the front forced Kyiv to increase the pool of individuals who would be mobilised.
Formally, Ukraine can mobilise about 5 million people. However, given the need to preserve the demographic situation, Kyiv can realistically count on a maximum of 2 to 2.5 million people, of which 1.05 million have already been drafted. An opportunity to improve the situation would be to increase conscription in Ukraine and bring back draft-age men who left Ukraine after the outbreak of the conflict. Of nearly 700,000 who ended up beyond the western border, about 200,000 meet the requirements of the new mobilisation law.
In the long term, the possible reluctance to return after the end of hostilities may pose a problem for Ukraine. Research conducted by the Institute for Demography and Social Studies shows that only about 40% of respondents plan to return to Ukraine. Each year, there is a significant decline in return declarations.
In March of last year, the UN estimated that 65% of refugees planned to return. Just after the full-scale conflict outbreak, it was as high as 84%. The longer the conflict lasts, the fewer will be willing to return. Oleh Gladun believes that success will be if half of the emigrants return. In this situation, the question of who will rebuild the country remains open.
