Ukraine's aerial defense strategy hinges on delayed F‑16 delivery

Analysts from Frontelligence Insight have identified the most significant threats currently faced by Ukrainian soldiers. F-16 fighter jets may allow for the elimination of at least some of these threats, but this could result in substantial losses of these American aircraft for the defensive army.

According to analysts, the worst threats for the Ukrainians are Russian artillery attacks and air strikes. Mentioned are not heavy bombers like the Tu-95, responsible for the recent massive attack on Kyiv, but drones, and also the invaders' corrected air bombs (KAB).

F-16s will need to hunt down Russian aircraft

"Challenges related to the frequent use of KABs are likely to persist. A solution to this can only come through additional purchases and deployment of Patriot air defense systems and the acquisition of F-16s equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles," explains the Frontelligence Insight group quoted by Forbes.

Ukraine is currently in a difficult position, lacking the best air defense systems and dedicated missiles. Soviet-era fighters being used do not have the range to attack Russian bombers.

F-16s can change the situation because they have better radars and self-defense systems, and also allow the use of a wide range of weaponry that can attack from a greater distance. As an example, AIM-120 missiles were mentioned. These are air-to-air missiles with a range of about 75 kilometres, which can be launched without the risk of flying over areas controlled by Russians.

In the publication in Forbes, it was clearly emphasized that the main task for Ukrainian F-16 pilots will be aggressive hunting of Russian bombers, such as the Su-34. This may involve numerous F-16 losses.

F-16s are standard-equipped with a six-barrel M61 Vulcan cannon of 20 mm caliber. Apart from AIM-120, they can also carry AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, AGM-65 Maverick and AGM-84D Harpoon, as well as bombs CBU-87, CBU-89, GBU-10, GBU-12, Paveway or JDAM.

When will Ukraine receive F-16s?

A separate question remains as to when the Ukrainians will be able to start using a larger number of F-16 fighters. Already in February this year, there was information that the fighters would be sent to the front with a several-month delay. Currently, the most likely scenario is that by the summer, only six out of the 45 F-16 fighters promised by NATO countries will reach Ukraine.