Ukraine to export its last grain reserves, eyes global price impact

By the end of May, Ukraine is expected to have exported all remaining grain from its 2023 harvest. This move is anticipated to lead to a slight increase in grain prices domestically and globally. Mykola Gorbachov, head of the Ukrainian Grain Association, shared these insights at the Black Sea Grain conference in Kyiv.

"By the end of the season, we anticipate a slight rise in prices as Ukraine manages to export almost all of its grain surplus by the end of May. June will see minimal grain exports, causing a slight uptick in world prices. In Europe, where yields will be lower, our agricultural producers can expect somewhat better prices," Gorbachov mentioned.

Gorbachov expressed optimism about improvements in logistics, particularly regarding the Odesa ports' operations. These developments could enable Ukrainian farmers to focus on currently profitable crops and increase production across the entire agro-industrial complex by 2025.

For the 2024 season, exporters could face challenges due to the anticipated alliance between France and Poland. Gorbachov predicted that these countries would seek to restrict Ukrainian grain access to the European market through legislative and sanitary barriers, potentially impeding Ukrainian businesses.

However, Gorbachov remains hopeful that such challenges will motivate Ukrainian agricultural businesses to explore new markets.

"It's logical that we will find them. We are determined to sell all our grain, whether it's in Africa or additional deliveries to Asia. Competition will inevitably resurface, and we may have to make concessions or add value in some areas. Next year, we aim to be even stronger because we must," he concluded.