Ukraine holds fire as Russia's aging tanks stay out of range
Most post-Soviet tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery systems have been stored outdoors for decades at several bases in Russia. Why don't the Ukrainians attack them? An OSINT analyst has provided an answer to this question.
The Ukrainian agency UNIAN highlighted an interesting analysis published on the Covert Cabal channel. As the months of war in Ukraine continue and losses mount, bases with post-Soviet equipment have become the main source of additional tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery systems for Putin's army fighting in Ukraine. However, there has never been an attempt to attack one of these locations.
Bases with post-Soviet equipment. Western weapons do not reach there
From the Ukrainian perspective, one of the main issues highlighted by the analyst is the distance separating Russian bases from the Ukrainian border. Most of them are located beyond the Urals, including in the Far East, such as the storage in Dachnoye near Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, more than 6,000 kilometres from Ukraine.
Western allies have not provided Ukraine with weapons of such range. The United States sent ATACMS missiles allowing targets up to a maximum of 300 kilometres away to be attacked, and the United Kingdom and France Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles with ranges up to about 500 kilometres. Even in the case of transferring Tomahawk missiles with a range of about 2,000 kilometres to Ukraine, some bases with post-Soviet equipment would still be secure.
Drone attacks in this case would be unprofitable
Theoretically, Ukraine could use another weapon - its long-range drones, which have proven effective in many strikes on Russian refineries. These facilities, however, are located closer to Ukraine, and their nature allows a drone to cause significant damage.
Meanwhile, reaching a base with armoured equipment and executing a precise attack would, at best, destroy one tank and possibly slightly damage a few neighbouring elements. A massive long-range drone attack would be needed, but these drones are too valuable for Ukraine. Additionally, in the case of the farthest bases, risky operations by sabotage groups already operating in Russia would be required anyway. As if that weren't enough, according to the analyst, old tanks stored outdoors already require repairs due to their age and technical condition, often very complicated and costly. Almost all such tanks are first sent for repair and only then to the front.
Covert Cabal concludes that given the limited number, range, and power of drones that Ukraine has at its disposal for deep strikes into Russia, it is much more justified to use them against more valuable and vulnerable targets, such as refineries.
