Ukraine braces for toughest winter as Russian tactics evolve

This winter is likely to be the harshest for the defenders of Ukrainian cities because the Ukrainian air defence is noticeably weaker. The supplies of missiles for Soviet-era air defence systems are nearly depleted, and the number of Western-supplied air defence systems capable of intercepting Russian targets (especially ballistic missiles) is insufficient to meet the demand.

The Russians are likely to intensively target critical infrastructure, such as power plants and thermal power stations, with missiles conserved over the past few months. This is all aimed at breaking the will of Ukrainian society.

However, the situation might be somewhat better for Ukrainian soldiers on the front: they are receiving aid from NATO countries in the form of generators and winter gear and uniforms. Countries like Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Norway have supplied hundreds of thousands of winter kits, while Russians regularly plead on Telegram for winter clothing.

For instance, in early November, Germany announced a winter aid package worth €235 million (approximately £195 million), and a few weeks earlier, the Baltic states and Norway announced a winter package worth €48 million (around £40 million). Additionally, numerous charitable fundraising efforts for Ukraine are being organised.

Meanwhile, for the Russians, situations similar to those in 2023 are likely to recur, where 30% of wounded soldiers in hospitals in Horlivka had frostbitten limbs. The Russians can, at most, count on international aid from Belarus and North Korea. This is crucial because Russian winter clothing supplies have proven insufficient, and already in 2023, new clothing for Russian troops was to be mass-produced by Belarus.

Warm gloves and socks that protect frostbite-prone hands and feet are vital. Over the past two years, Russian soldiers have complained about the lack of such equipment, showing on social media how they resorted to makeshift wraps (cloths used instead of socks in high boots), stating that in the 21st century, they must manage like their grandfathers once did.

Before winter arrives, both sides must contend with mud, which almost completely inhibits attacks in certain areas. Artillery and anti-tank weapons guard stable roads, the only viable routes for heavy equipment use.

Using it off-road often results in immobilisation, and while retrieving a tank with another vehicle is possible in the rear, on the main line of combat, such options do not exist. Moreover, such conditions expose all maintenance errors, causing equipment to spend more time undergoing repairs.

When frost sets in, all equipment operates more clumsily or fails completely. Weapon parts can freeze, and lubricants can lose their properties. Concealment becomes more challenging, with soldiers particularly vulnerable to detection by thermal drones or snipers equipped with thermal scopes.

In such conditions, even constructing new field fortifications or using a towed howitzer becomes challenging, as seen in video footage of winter battles below.

Moreover, any attempt at warming up, such as with a campfire or preparing meals over an open flame, can attract artillery fire or drone attacks with grenades (due to the constant presence of thermal drones in the sky). On the other hand, winter also poses challenges for drone pilots because low temperatures negatively affect lithium-ion batteries' performance.

Thermal imaging, which was reserved only for vehicles like tanks a few decades ago, has significantly decreased in price and is now widely available. Equipment such as Anafi Thermal Parrot drones or hunting thermal sights like the Pulsar Thermion 2 XP50 PRO allows detection of a human from a distance of up to 1,800 metres.

Unlike night vision devices, thermal imagers are very difficult to deceive. Special coatings designed to reduce light reflection in night vision do not work because thermal imagers rely on the temperature difference between an object and its surroundings.

A human is easier to detect in low temperatures than in positive temperatures. The only way to shield oneself from thermal imaging is to hide one's body heat signature relative to the surroundings or position an obstacle between the thermal imager and the protected object, which is nearly impossible on the move. Thick vegetation can help here, but it is no longer present in winter.

Concealment in stationary conditions can be achieved with Relv Eclipse sheets or camouflage nets similar to those from Berberys, which are stretched over trenches, tents, or firing positions. The permeability of these shields is crucial (they must have the ambient temperature), and soldiers must avoid excessive heat generation, such as from diesel generators or Esbit field stoves.

Instead, many armed forces have adopted chemical heaters as the standard for heating meals, generating heat through a chemical reaction of iron and magnesium-based compounds. Water acts as the activator, but new solutions have emerged that use air instead.

One weakness of Thermal imaging is that fog and dense clouds can reduce effectiveness. Russians often attack at dusk or dawn, when tank temperatures are close to the ambient temperature. They also modify exhaust systems to discharge exhaust gases near the ground.

However, these techniques are makeshift compared to modern multi-band camouflages available on some tanks. Additionally, new tanks are equipped with auxiliary power units (APUs) as additional power sources. These are typically small generators producing up to 20 kilowatts, consuming less fuel and generating less heat than the main engine.

These can be found in T-80 tanks, Ukrainian-modified T-72 AMTs, American M1A1 Abrams, and Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks deployed to Ukraine.

Ukraine has much better access to the above solutions than Russia, which will likely reflect on the effectiveness and losses of the forces, similar to previous years.