Ukraine braces as Russia gears up for significant new offensives

After retreating from Avdiivka, the Ukrainians began reinforcing new positions to the west of the city ruins. Earlier, their army had spent several months doing nothing to prepare additional defence lines, as if they had not considered the necessity of retreating from the main line of defence.

In the meantime, the next "meat attacks," in which the Russians took no heed of losses, not only forced the Ukrainians to retreat from the city but pushed them into a defensive stance. On average, around Berdyansk, Tonenky, Orlovka, and Pervomaisky, they have to repel approximately 20 attacks daily.

The main target of Russian strikes has become Semenivka, situated between Orlovka and Berdyansk. Battles are being fought along the line of canals and fish ponds on the western outskirts of the settlement. There, under the fire of Russian artillery, the Ukrainians are hastily building fortification lines meant to stop the Russian march westward.

The situation has changed 180 degrees compared to last spring. At that time, in Zaporizhzhia, the Russians were building fortification lines. Initially very fragile and poorly manned, the Ukrainians practically did nothing to obstruct these efforts. As a result, the Russians gained time to significantly strengthen their positions and protect them with minefields, which largely halted the Ukrainian summer offensive.

Today, the Ukrainians in Zaporizhzhia and the Donbas are forced to construct defensive lines themselves. They mainly put up wooden field fortifications, and less often, prefabricated infantry bunkers with machine gun posts are erected. However, the Ukrainians face a problem because the Russians regularly bombard the builders on most fronts.

The Ukrainians have wasted more months – for unclear reasons. Perhaps they believed their propaganda, which spoke of the enemy's inability to conduct a broad offensive. Now, they are in a hurry, as the Russians are concentrating increasingly larger forces, especially on the sections of Kupiansk, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk.

Two weeks ago, I wrote that the most sensible step - from the Russian standpoint - would have been to strike at Kupiansk, an important communication hub. In doing so, they could isolate part of the theatre of operations near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, to later strike at these cities. At that time, they still had insufficient forces.

Two weeks later, the situation was different. It turned out that the Russians had indeed started preparations for an attack north of Bakhmut. In the Kupiansk sector, they gathered elite air assault units—the 98th and 106th Divisions—alongside independent air assault brigades—the 11th and 83rd. Recently, mercenaries from the so-called 1st Volunteer Assault Corps also appeared in the immediate rear of the front.

Overall, the Russians have concentrated on about 30 assault battalions. Their quality is better than that of mechanized units, even considering the mobilised soldiers' low training level. The question is not whether the Russians will attack but when. They have shown that thanks to a change in tactics, the Ukrainian mud does not hinder them. Of course, they pay a high price, losing dozens of men in each attack, but they steadily advance.

The new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, is conducting audits among field commanders. Committees are checking what mistakes were made on the battlefield. Syrsky has threatened that negative assessments will lead to dismissal and "severe consequences" in cases where "a commander does not control the situation, and actions and orders pose a direct threat to the life and health of the subordinates."

The Ukrainians are not only hastily building fortification lines but also have decided to avoid civilian casualties at all costs. Expecting an attack on Kupiansk, the Kharkiv Oblast Defence Council supported the decision for mandatory and compulsory evacuation from certain settlements towards Kupiansk.

"The Kharkiv Oblast Defence Council supported the compulsory evacuation of children with their parents, substitutes, or other legal representatives from 18 territorial community settlements of Velyky Burlyuk and Vilkhuvatka," reads a statement from the council's head, Oleg Sinehubov.

After the Russian advancements near Avdiivka and in anticipation of an offensive on Kupiansk, the authorities decided to evacuate residents from 57 localities. The abandoned villages and settlements are being fortified. For the Ukrainians, the most crucial question is: Will they manage to complete preparations before the Russian attack?