UK and France lead Europe amid Germany's fading influence
In light of Donald Trump's return to the White House, the United Kingdom and France are taking the lead in Europe. The Bloomberg agency has analysed their role in the context of Germany's weakening influence and the increasing importance of other countries.
The United Kingdom and France, long-time allies and rivals, are now collaborating to tackle geopolitical challenges. According to Bloomberg, these two countries united after Brexit to defend Ukraine and Europe. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have committed to deploying troops to Ukraine to ensure peace with Russia.
Bloomberg emphasises that the combination of military, nuclear, and intelligence capabilities of the United Kingdom and France gives them an advantage over the traditional Franco-German axis. Germany, currently grappling with internal issues, is unable to fulfil its previous role as Europe's leader.
However, both Starmer and Macron face challenges. Starmer, who came to power with a promise to end austerity policies, now needs to find resources to increase defence spending. Meanwhile, Macron, who is unable to seek re-election, has to confront the rising popularity of Marine Le Pen.
The country that has been overlooked in all of this is Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe and the lender of last resort in many crises. Germany's army was deliberately weakened after World War II, and there is a fundamental obstacle—not only psychological—to increasing defence spending in the form of the debt brake enshrined in the constitution, Bloomberg notes.
Italy and other key figures
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who enjoys good relations with Trump and Elon Musk, may play a significant role in discussions with the USA. However, her country does not meet the requirement of spending 2% of GDP on defence, and pro-Russian coalition partners may hinder her pro-European policies.
Bloomberg lists other figures who could influence Ukraine's future, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, King Charles III, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Germany and Turkey in the new arrangement
Despite being the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany has been overlooked in current discussions. Its army, weakened after World War II, and the constitutional debt brake pose challenges to increasing defence spending.
Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO, can also play a crucial role. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, "It is Türkiye and its full EU membership that can save the European Union from its deadlock." However, Turkey is demanding a high price for its support.
