Trump's return could reshape war dynamics in Ukraine

Donald Trump, even as a candidate, labelled the war in Ukraine as a "loss" and promised to end it within 24 hours. To this day, he has not revealed how he plans to achieve this.

So far, the United States has provided Ukraine with the majority of international aid since Russia's full-scale invasion. Severe cuts or a complete withdrawal of this aid could allow Russia to make a decisive breakthrough.

Kyiv and Moscow are trying to position themselves as best as possible in anticipation of potential changes that a Trump administration may bring. Business Insider explored four possible scenarios for the war's development.

The possibility of a temporary ceasefire gained attention with Trump's potential reelection. Upon returning to office, Trump promised a swift end to the war and called on 8 December on Truth Social for an immediate ceasefire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and end the madness," he said, adding, "It can turn into something much bigger and much worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had long rejected the idea of giving up land in exchange for ending the war, suggested that such a deal could be achieved if the non-occupied parts of Ukraine were "under NATO's umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should quickly take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," said Zelensky, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other parts of its territory in a diplomatic way."

John Lough, a senior associate at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Business Insider that Ukraine seems to be moving away from its "maximum position" of reclaiming all the occupied territory but would like credible security guarantees from the West.

However, with Western countries hesitant to provoke Russia's President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome is a "freezing" of the war, as "a settlement is too ambitious at this stage."

Another possible scenario is Russia's refusal to compromise and the continuation of fighting. Military experts from the US Institute for the Study of War have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are unwilling to engage in serious negotiations.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant further support from the West, which may be challenging for Kyiv to secure. Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have expressed scepticism about American support for Ukraine under Biden's administration.

A prolonged war would be catastrophic for Ukraine. It cannot recruit as many soldiers as Russia and values human life more than its opponent, so it would inevitably suffer more from a prolonged war of attrition. However, a prolonged war would likely also strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armoured vehicles at an unsustainable rate, and it may need another round of mobilisation to continue replacing human losses.

The worst-case scenario for Kyiv would be a collapse of the front line due to a lack of resources or a change in international support. In such a case, Ukraine would likely be forced to cede large portions of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnieper potentially coming under Russian control through annexation or effective oversight.

The Kremlin continues to undermine the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky and demands his removal from office despite having no grounds for it.