Trump edges out Harris in the new poll, but key states still in play
9 September 2024 07:12
Donald Trump has achieved slightly higher ratings than Kamala Harris in a new nationwide poll commissioned by the newspaper "The New York Times." Although her lead has diminished, it has not disappeared entirely. In key states, the Democratic candidate still holds an advantage.
According to the "The New York Times survey," 48% of likely voters indicate they would vote for Trump, while 47% favour Harris. This is the same result as in a similar survey from 24 July, just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the election. However, Harris has maintained chiefly a several-point lead in various polls over the past few weeks.
As the newspaper points out, analysing the results, as many as 28% of respondents declare that they still need to learn more about Harris (for Trump, it's 9%), indicating potential changes and highlighting the importance of the upcoming debate between the candidates.
The only scheduled televised debate between the candidates will occur on 10 September in Philadelphia and is organised by ABC Television. The results also suggest that Harris is seen as a more ideologically extreme candidate (47% consider her "too liberal," while 34% view Trump as "too conservative") and, to a much lesser extent, gives voters hope for change.
Where is Harris' problem?
The Vice President's problem also lies in her slight edge among Latino voters, although she has gained over Biden among women and the youngest voters.
Another survey published on Sunday by YouGov for CBS television shows extremely balanced ratings for the candidates in the three key states of the "Rust Belt": Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Harris leads by 2 percentage points in Wisconsin, Michigan by 1, and Pennsylvania, it's a tie. Winning all three states would likely give Harris enough electoral votes to win the election.
Despite leading in the nationwide "NYT" poll, the average of all surveys calculated by the same newspaper still gives Harris a 2 percentage-point higher rating than Trump nationwide. According to the same average, the Vice President leads or is tied with the former president in all seven key states, but her lead is within the margin of error.
