Trump administration poised to renew tough sanctions on Iran
Former US President Donald Trump is preparing to tighten sanctions against Iran significantly. According to reports from The Wall Street Journal, the new administration may impose stricter restrictions than during his first term, including measures aimed at China to limit Iranian oil exports.
Sources from The Wall Street Journal suggest the new administration plans to take swift action targeting Tehran's oil revenue. Sanctions are expected to cover Iranian oil traders and the ports handling its transport. A former White House employee told the newspaper that it is a convenient time to exploit Iran's current weakness.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement and, in 2019, imposed an embargo on Iranian oil exports. The results of these actions were ambiguous. Iran blocked access for international observers to its nuclear facilities while simultaneously finding ways to continue selling oil. According to S&P Global data, in 2024, daily exports averaged 270,000 cubic metres.
New targets of sanctions
China may be the focus of the new administration's attention. Robert McNally, former energy advisor at the White House and current president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, predicts the possibility of sanctions on Chinese ports receiving Iranian oil. He believes that merely announcing such actions could reduce oil supplies by at least 80,000 cubic metres daily.
Helima Croft, chief strategist for commodity markets at RBC Capital Markets and former CIA analyst, points out that top Trump advisors supported Israeli plans to strike Iranian oil and nuclear installations. This is in stark contrast to the Biden administration, which, in October, advised Israel against conducting a massive missile attack in response to strikes from Iran.
Personal vendettas and broader context
The tightening of policy towards Iran also has a personal dimension. In August, US authorities accused a Pakistani citizen linked to Iran of attempting to organise an attack on Trump and his former national security advisors. This was retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone in 2020.
Brian Hook, former coordinator for Iran policy at the State Department and currently responsible for the handover of matters in the department, confirms the intention to isolate Iran. The goal is to limit Tehran's ability to finance armed groups, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and other militias in Iraq and Syria.
