Transnistria’s Dilemma. Between Russian Pressure and Moldovan Dreams

The separatist authorities of Transnistria act in their interest and would like to maintain the status quo before 2022. However, if the Russians reached Odessa, Tiraspol would lose its room for manoeuvre - Vladimir Socor, an expert from the Jamestown Foundation, told PAP.

If the Russian army reached Odesa in southern Ukraine, the authorities of separatist Transnistria (a territory of Moldova) would have to execute Russian orders, even if they dislike it unconditionally and it contradicts their interest, predicts the analyst.

Transnistria – a separatist region in the Republic of Moldova – currently separates Ukraine from Russia. At the beginning of the full-scale Russian aggression in 2022, one of the plans – unsuccessful – of the invading army was a landing in Odessa, which would have placed Russians very close. From Odessa to Transnistria, it is about 100 kilometres.

Now, Transnistrian (separatist) leaders have a large room for manoeuvre because Russia is physically isolated, says Socor. This means, among other things, that Russia cannot replenish or rearm its forces stationed there.

- If the Russians reached Odessa, the separatist authorities would lose their room for manoeuvre and access to the European market. In such a situation, Chisinau would also lose its ability to influence Tiraspol, which it uses wisely, moderately, and constructively to evaluate Socor.

Chisinau wants to reintegrate Transnistria into the constitutional framework of Moldova. If Odessa were occupied, those possibilities of influence would be completely lost.

It's not at all about entering Moldova or even Transnistria itself. "Russians don't need to enter. Being in Odessa, they could replenish their forces in the separatist region and rearm them with new weapons that are not currently there. They need to increase their military presence in Transnistria, but not with the aim of traditional occupation," says Socor.

As the analyst says, currently, there are from 1,500 to 2,000 Russian soldiers in Transnistria.

Transnistria - a separatist region of Moldova, a former republic within the USSR - declared disobedience to the authorities in Chisinau in the early 90s and, after a short war accompanied by Russian intervention, fought for almost full independence. It has its president, army, security forces, tax offices, and currency. No country, including Russia, has recognised Transnistria's independence, though the latter supports it economically and politically.

The authorities of Moldova, which is currently undergoing the accession process to the EU, emphasise that they aim to reintegrate the region peacefully. Analysts warn that Transnistria, like the pro-Russian Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, is increasingly used by the Kremlin in the information war and hybrid operations to obstruct Moldova's European integration process.