Tensions rise over Baltic cables: China-Russia link suspected
After two underwater telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged, evidence suggests the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was involved. The vessel departed the Russian port of Ust-Luga a few days before the incident. Experts indicate this may not have been accidental, hinting at potential collaboration between Beijing and Moscow.
On Sunday and Monday, two underwater internet cables were severed: one linking Lithuania with Sweden and the other connecting Finland with Germany. These events both occurred within the Swedish economic zone. The Stockholm police have initiated an investigation into potential sabotage. Operators have ruled out equipment malfunctions, confirming that the cables were physically severed.
"No one believes the cables were damaged by accident. I also don't want to believe that ship anchors accidentally caused the damage. We must assume that we are dealing with sabotage," stated German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday in Brussels.
Meanwhile, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen declared that if the destruction of the underwater telecommunication cables is verified as a result of hybrid actions by a foreign nation, Finland will consider invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Under this treaty, an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all allies.
The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti disclosed that shortly before the incidents, the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was near both cables, performing unusual manoeuvres. Scandinavian media suspect the ship of cutting the telecommunication cables on the Baltic Sea floor. The vessel was detained by a Danish Navy patrol ship in the Great Belt Strait.
According to Mariusz Marszałkowski from Defence24, it’s difficult to speak of coincidence, especially considering last year’s damage to the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia, caused by the anchor of another Chinese ship, the NewNew Polar Bear.
"Additionally, other cables were damaged then. The pipeline suffered significant harm, resulting in a leak, and an anchor was broken off. This vessel was suspected from the outset, but no decisive action was taken, allowing the ship to escape the Baltic. Currently, there’s a much swifter response, presumably due to pressure from Germany," explains Mariusz Marszałkowski, an expert at Defence24 and a lecturer at the Naval Academy in Gdynia, to us.
He adds that it's hard to imagine the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 crew not noticing an anchor being dropped and randomly tearing the fibre-optic cables at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
"This significantly affects the vessel’s manoeuvrability and speed, taking several hours. A technical malfunction is the only plausible explanation, but post-event behaviour doesn’t support this. The ship neither stopped nor informed the appropriate services," states the expert.
Meanwhile, Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of the Military Counterintelligence Service, notes that despite high ship traffic in the Baltic, services and NATO have tools to track ships navigating past critical infrastructure on the seabed.
"There are many lines here: fibre optics, communication lines, gas pipelines, and oil pipelines. So it's evident who and when appeared before the damage occurred. From Russia or China’s perspective, it’s the perfect site for 'accidental' actions, with Moscow and Beijing having developed hybrid warfare plans. Hence, we should anticipate more incidents, involving not just reconnaissance but damage to critical infrastructure, especially in the Baltic," says Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak, a former deputy head of SKW and an expert at the Stratpoints foundation, to WP.
He believes it’s conceivable that the operation aboard the Chinese-flagged ship was orchestrated by Russians. "They’re adept at operating under foreign flags and later denying responsibility. However, Putin's advisor Nikolai Patrushev stated last week that the USA and the UK 'plan to blow up cables and disrupt the global Internet.' This appears too coincidental, suggesting Russian actions," argues Col. Matysiak.
Mariusz Marszałkowski shares a similar view. "This case may highlight effective Sino-Russian cooperation. It demonstrates that Beijing is a dependable ally to Moscow. The intention behind these actions remains uncertain. However, it's notable that within a year, strategic infrastructure in the Baltic was damaged by ships flying the Chinese flag," assesses the Defence24 expert.
"A Russian vessel would be suspected and detained instantly. In the end, the Chinese have nothing to lose and can claim it was an accident. Last year, they denied involvement for months. The question remains: what did the Chinese gain from the Russians? This isn’t mere goodwill; it’s a specific exchange. The Russian navy’s presence in the Pacific, near Taiwan, might be part of a political repayment," concludes Mariusz Marszałkowski.
