Surge in anti-EU ads stirs Moldova's election tensions

"Hundreds of thousands of euros are being spent on social media campaigns aimed against European integration and targeting pro-European President Maia Sandu. This money comes from the pockets of fugitive oligarchs—Ilhan Sora and Veaceslav Platon," informed Curararu, representing the Watchdog.md centre.

The central axis of disputes in the upcoming presidential elections has become the attitude towards European integration. While fighting for re-election, Maia Sandu has set the country's pursuit of the European Union as her primary goal. At her initiative, a referendum will be held with a question about strategically inscribing this goal into the constitution.

Alongside Sandu, there are a total of 11 candidates. "I would say that most of Sandu's competitors, except for Octavian Ticu, put forward by the Together (Impreuni) bloc, are in one way or another associated with Russian narratives and more or less openly undermine European integration," assessed Curararu.

The most likely rival for Sandu is the former General Prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, who does not formally oppose European integration, but the socialists supporting him intend to boycott the referendum.

"He positions himself as a 'pragmatist.' He says that there is a need to return to correct relations with Russia and maintain contact with both sides. Other candidates say that European integration is the right direction, but not now and not in this form. They also accuse Sandu of monopolising this topic and attempting to link the issue of EU membership with one political force, i.e., Sandu and her supporting Action and Solidarity Party," explained Curararu.

Irina Vlah, the former Governor of Gagauzia, is another figure linked to Ilan Sora. "She criticises the president, accusing her of being overly pro-Western. She suggests that Sandu is dragging the country into war, getting too close to Romania, etc. Vlah insists on Moldova's neutrality and has even demanded a referendum on this matter," noted the expert.

Former Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev, running as an independent, is also suspected of ties with oligarchs. In contrast, Tudor Ulianovschi, who started as a pro-European politician, now focuses on defending traditional values allegedly threatened by the EU.

In the top three regarding the number of ads purchased on YouTube is journalist Natalia Morari, who is privately linked to Platon. "In my opinion, Morari's role right now is to attack Sandu and lay the groundwork for a possible future platform ahead of parliamentary elections," announced Curararu.

Surveys give Sandu a clear lead but indicate the possibility of a second round. "The situation with support for the referendum is variable. In the latest survey, 48-51 per cent of respondents were 'for,'" added the analyst.

In recent months, investigative journalists have shown that clerics from churches under Moscow's jurisdiction travelled to Russia on "agitation pilgrimages." "They are supposed to receive scholarships and then preach their teachings, warning against the EU," informed a PAP interlocutor. It is also linked to voter bribery. "It's not just bribing priests, but also so-called 'social assistance' provided by Russia to residents of Gagauzia," he explained.

There are reports from Bălți in the north of the country that people linked to the Sora Bloc Pobieda are preparing for future protests. "The idea is to lead to large-scale actions, including the use of violence, under the banner of protest against 'rigged elections,'" added the expert.

"If a pro-Russian candidate does not win, they intend to incite protests. They aim to fuel negative perceptions of Western governments and the current Moldovan authorities while simultaneously undermining public faith in the country's ability to ensure its own security and maintain the rule of law," warned a report published by the USA, Canada, and the United Kingdom in June this year.