Russia's space odyssey: New station amid fading glory
For many decades, Russia was a world leader in space exploration. However, by the second decade of the 21st century, little remained of its once mighty cosmic power, and Russia's position in the global space services market is weakening year by year. In this context, Roscosmos has announced a plan to advance – it intends to build a Russian space station independently.
The list of Russian space successes is indeed impressive. They include the first artificial Earth satellite, the first human in space, the first images of the moon's dark side, landings on the Moon and Venus, spacewalks, and the construction of the first orbital station, Salyut/Zarya.
These achievements demonstrate the power, vision, and efficient operation of the Russian space programme. Even the Buran shuttle programme in the 1980s – although it resulted only in a single unmanned flight – showcased Russian potential and the ability to keep pace with the United States and, later, other countries with space ambitions.
Today, in the third decade of the 21st century, the Russian space programme is but a shadow of its former self. Instead of ongoing successes, it's now marred by a series of failures. The successful completion of missions, especially straightforward orbital flights – once almost a given – has become rare, and the equipment developed long ago, despite upgrades, increasingly lags behind global leaders.
On a financial front, Russia is losing ground in terms of reducing costs. While some, like SpaceX, routinely use reusable launch modules and others develop and test such solutions, Russia, reminiscent of Soviet days and early astronautics, still treats valuable rockets as disposable equipment. This results in a lack of competitive pricing compared to its rivals.
The future of the Russian space programme
The new Angara family of launch vehicles seems to offer some hope, allowing optimal selection of lifting capacities ranging from approximately 3,800 to over 24,000 kilograms, thanks to its modular construction. However, the Angara programme faces significant delays and remains technically uncertain despite a few successful launches. Moreover, the "new" Russian rockets – like the European Ariane 6 rocket debuting in mid-2024 – were conceptually outdated from the onset.
Concurrently, the phasing out of the Soyuz/Progress ships (the manned and unmanned versions, respectively) is anticipated to revolutionise the Russian space programme. These ships have been true veterans of space, having been developed, tested, and improved since the 1960s.
The long period of operation and enhancement has ensured that all potential failures in these ships were meticulously identified and rectified, making the Soyuz/Progress tandem synonymous with reliability in space.
However, the scope for modernising the vintage design is limited. In the near future (originally planned for 2024), the Soyuz will be replaced by the completely new, six-person Oryol spacecraft, which Russians aim to use for journeys not only to Earth's orbit but also to the Moon and Mars.
Russia's space setbacks
The problem is that Oryol is a design fraught with great risks, which, like the American Starliner, may significantly delay all related projects.
Especially given that unsuccessful missions and disasters have marked recent years for Roscosmos. Earlier explosions of the Proton-M rockets from a decade ago, issues with Angara's launch, failures of military satellite missions Cosmos-2555 (which proudly bore the "Z" symbol) or Cosmos-2560, and the disaster of the lunar probe Luna-25 – all paint a picture of the collapse in which the Russian space industry finds itself.
This is further highlighted by the fact that in the entire year of 2023, Russians managed just 19 successful launches, whereas the Chinese achieved 66, and the Americans as many as 110.
New orbital station ROSS
Under these conditions, in mid-2024, the head of Roscosmos, Yuriy Borisov, announced a bold decision. Russia's strategy for progress is to withdraw from international cooperation via the International Space Station and autonomously build the Russian Orbital Station ROSS.
The plan is ambitious—by the end of 2027, the NEM module (initially intended for the ISS Scientific and Energy Module) will be sent into orbit. In 2028, a node module—to facilitate the attachment of additional elements and the expansion of the base—as well as an airlock for docking spacecraft and another modified NEM module will follow.
At this stage, the space station – though small – will perform its core functions: hosting crews, docking spacecraft, and enabling further expansion. The station's expansion is expected to continue until 2035.
Ultimately, ROSS will consist of five additional modules, including an optional commercial module designed for four space tourists.
Unlike the permanently crewed International Space Station, ROSS will be optionally unmanned. It will operate autonomously for most of the time, with astronauts visiting for upgrades, maintenance, research, or commercial missions.
Propaganda of success
Does this ambitious – albeit limited compared to the ISS – plan stand a chance of success? In 2024, viewing it as anything other than a series of propagandist aspirations is hard. The fate of the Angara rocket family remains uncertain – especially since the "heavy" Angara A5 rockets, capable of lifting approximately 24,000 kilograms, will be necessary to send the NEM modules into orbit.
Will Russia be able to re-establish its place in space? It seems unlikely when propagandist declarations are set aside, and the facts are examined. Even if some improbable series of successes construct the space station, the Oryol spacecraft proves successful, and the Angara rockets achieve consistent successful launches, the gap with global competitors will only widen.
The USA, China, India, and Japan—with their reusable spacecraft, extensive infrastructure, and rapidly developing private space sectors testing innovative solutions—are leaving Russia further and further behind. The glorious times of Gagarin, Tereshkova, Zond, Luna, and Salyut are now a distant memory, and there is no indication that they will return.
