Russia’s resource dependency: Strategic weakness exposed

Russian exports mainly consist of natural resources such as oil and natural gas. Despite the sanctions imposed, there is still global demand for these resources, and new Western buyers have partially replaced old ones, including China and India, which are taking advantage of the situation.

Russia also controls the transport of tungsten, essential for the Western arms sector, and is a significant producer of enriched uranium, which is crucial as fuel for nuclear power plants.

Although Kremlin propaganda likes to portray Russia as a self-sufficient resource powerhouse, this is not wholly true. One weakness of Putin's regime is the country's dependence on external supplies of manganese, essential for the modern arms industry.

This issue, a pressing yet unpublicised problem for the Kremlin, is discussed in greater detail by Yevgeny Fyodorov from the Russian service Topwar. The author notes that while Russia has only two large manganese deposits, it cannot effectively exploit them and relies on Soviet-era methods for extracting strategic resources without investing in research or development of the mining sector. Although Russian extraction accounts for about 2% of the world's manganese production, it is merely a drop in the ocean for the arms sector, which is crucial for the war in Ukraine.

Russia has circumvented EU sanctions, sourcing manganese via Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, and the Baltic countries. Interestingly, Estonia and Latvia have long been sounding the alarm that strategic raw material reaches Russia through their ports, but as lawful nations, they lack the means to block this process.

While an alternative import route allows Russia to continue production, it increases costs and, being less stable, heightens the risk of potential supply chain disruptions. But why is manganese so important to Russia?

It is essential for industry, including the arms sector: it enhances the mechanical properties of steel, reduces susceptibility to corrosion, and lowers the melting temperature (which aids processing). Although its proportion in armour steels is typically a fraction of a percent, its role is indispensable.

Significant manganese deposits are located close to Russia. According to a report by Ukraine's State Geological and Subsoil Service, in 2019, Ukraine accounted for 10% of global manganese production. This, combined with other natural resources of Ukraine, may have been one of the unofficial reasons for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Chromium holds similar importance to Russia as manganese since its addition to steel increases hardness and improves hardenability, heat resistance, and corrosion resistance. Russia is forced to import 60% of the national demand, with most of the critical industrial raw materials arriving via Kazakhstan.

Furthermore, Russia's currently exploited chromium deposits (and many other resources) are running low. In September 2024, Russia's Minister of Natural Resources, Alexander Kozlov, sounded the alarm on this issue. The minister noted that deposits of key minerals are nearing depletion and can meet the demands of Russian industry for between 5 and 15 years, depending on the resource.

He attributed this situation to the near-total cessation of geological research and the focus on exploiting resources dating back to the Soviet Union. This short-sighted, profit-driven policy has necessitated the reach for Arctic resources, leading to increased regional tensions and counteractions from the West.

Russia's reliance on imported resources also affects the credibility of the blackmail that Putin occasionally directs towards the rest of the world. Although Russia can indeed cut off supplies of resources vital to the West, such as uranium, tungsten, or titanium, Kremlin propaganda consistently overlooks the fact that disrupting the global supply chain could backfire, proving harmful not only to the West but, if met with similar retaliation, primarily to Russia itself.