Russia's pivotal election: Will constitutional changes cement Putin's rule?
Saturday marked the second day of the presidential election in the Russian Federation, with the three-day electoral process following recent constitutional amendments that removed presidential term limits, potentially extending Vladimir Putin's presidency.
The 2020 summer constitutional reforms in Russia, initiated by Putin, eliminated presidential term limits. Specifically, the reforms stated that the incumbent president's terms would start anew. This move unmistakably aimed to enable Putin, who has been in power since 2012 across two six-year terms, to bypass the existing restrictions. Previously, his second term under the old constitution was due to end in 2024.
This alteration means Putin could stay in power until at least 2036, when he will be 84 years old. Putin has led Russia since 2000, following his appointment by Boris Yeltsin, Russia's first president.
Even Putin's tenure as Prime Minister between 2008 and 2012 was seen as a strategic manoeuvre to sidestep term limits without violating the constitution.
The three-day election model, first trialled in 2020 under the guise of reducing pandemic risks, contrasts with the minimal participation in early voting historically. Additionally, 2020 expanded the options for voting outside traditional polling stations. These practices, recurring during the 2021 parliamentary elections, dilute public oversight and increase the potential for irregularities. Particularly, electronic voting (DEG), introduced in Moscow in 2019, has been implicated in vote-rigging, according to independent sources like "Novaya Gazeta.Europe".
Putin faces three nominal challengers
The ballot lists Putin alongside nominal adversaries: Nikolai Kharitonov, Vladislav Davankov, and Leonid Slutsky. The International Criminal Court has sought Putin since 2023 over allegations of war crimes related to the deportation of Ukrainian children.
Kharitonov represents the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Slutsky stands for the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Davankov, a New People party member, is the Vice-Chairman of the parliament. Parties represented in the Russian parliament are typically not oppositional, maintaining allegiance to Kremlin policies.
The Kremlin's expectations: high support amid significant turnout
March 2024 reports from the independent news source Meduza, based on Kremlin insiders, suggest the regime anticipates over 80% of votes for Putin, targeting a turnout of 70-80%. This is expected to be achieved by mobilising state-dependent voters from public institutions, state enterprises, and Kremlin-aligned corporations, under pressure to vote and bring others.
The extensive mobilisation, coupled with multi-day voting and electronic ballot systems, is expected to neutralise opposition efforts, Meduza has reported.
Yulia Navalnaya advocates for election boycott
Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, has called for a boycott of the vote from exile. Encouraging Russians to assemble at polling stations on March 17 at noon in protest, she aims to demonstrate the significant number of opposition supporters. Navalny, once the Kremlin's most formidable adversary, was excluded from presidential races by the Central Election Commission (CEC), jailed in January 2021, and reported dead in February 2024 while serving time in a penal colony near the Arctic Circle.
Navalny's strategies have previously incited mass protests and diluted the Kremlin's party influence. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, independent media platforms in Russia, such as "Novaya Gazeta" and Dozhd TV, have been shut down. Journalists and activists labelled as "foreign agents" face repression or exile.
Detained since August 2023, Grigory Melkonyants, co-chair of the election monitoring group Golos, has been vocal about election irregularities for years.
Yulia Navalnaya, in a "Washington Post" article, has urged the West to disregard the election results set for March 17, echoing sentiments from imprisoned opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza, who faces a 25-year sentence for alleged "treason".
Incidences at polling stations during Russian election
Polling stations operated from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. GMT. According to Russian time zones, voting began on the Kamchatka peninsula (March 15 at 9 p.m. GMT) and concluded in the Kaliningrad region (March 17 at 6 p.m. GMT). "Advance voting" also occurred in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, with reports of coerced voting accompanied by armed personnel.
From across Russia, numerous voting disturbances have been reported, including vandalism in Saint Petersburg and Moscow. Arrests were made following these incidents.
