Estonian Intelligence Warns of Russia Preparing for Conflict with NATO
15 March 2024 15:59
The Russian army is already preparing for the next war, warns the American magazine "Foreign Policy", citing sources from the Estonian intelligence services. According to reports, the Kremlin anticipates a conflict with NATO within the next decade.
More than two years after invading Ukraine, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin seems increasingly confident in his position. His main political rival, Aleksiej Navalny, is dead, and decisions regarding further military support for Ukraine from the USA are stalled in Congress. Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its economy to a wartime footing, increasing defence production and boosting economic growth in spite of international sanctions - notes "Foreign Policy".
Everything is going according to the Kremlin's plan
The Director-General of Estonian foreign intelligence, Kaupo Rosin, admits that "all of this is once again more or less going according to the Kremlin's plan". He adds that the Russian military has learned from the mistakes made in the initial phases of the war and is adapting to new conditions with unprecedented speed.
Rosin notes that "Russians have always solved their problems en masse, and that has worked for them throughout history". In his opinion, the reforms of the Russian armed forces are likely to result in the creation of an army with low technological levels, in the Soviet style, but with significant firepower, including artillery.
At the end of 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to restructure the armed forces and increase their numbers by 30 percent - to nearly 1.5 million by 2026. The Estonian intelligence predicts that Moscow will double the number of its soldiers compared to the military personnel stationed in the west of the country immediately before the invasion of Ukraine.
North Korean and Iranian deliveries give Russia an advantage
- Moscow delved deep into its artillery missile stocks, increased production, and even sought deliveries from North Korea and Iran, giving it an advantage over Ukraine in terms of firepower at a ratio of seven to one - observed the head of Estonian military intelligence, Ants Kiviselg.
Rosin emphasizes that "war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable, as much can still be done to deter Moscow". "Much depends on our actions in the West," he adds.
The Director of Estonian foreign intelligence believes that "a specific task that currently faces us is to ensure Ukraine's success in this war". "This largely depends on the future of Europe," he notes.
