Russia's growing arctic power: NATO urged to respond
"Russia is building up combat power in the polar region, and NATO needs a plan to counter him," says James Stavridis, former US Navy admiral and Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe. In his Bloomberg column, he explains why this is so important.
James Stavridis is a recognized military figure who is respected in politics and business. He made his career in the US Navy, where he rose to the rank of admiral. From 2009 to 2013, he was also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe and the first naval officer to hold this position. He is currently vice president and one of the partners at Carlyle Group, a global investment firm.
The world's new flashpoint: The Arctic
In his column for Bloomberg, written on the recent NATO summit, Stavridis notes that little attention was paid during the meeting to a region that may soon "become a flashpoint for conflict": the Arctic. "Russia is making moves in the north, with China to a slightly lesser extent," Stavridis emphasises.
As he explains, Russia is the largest coastal state in the Arctic Ocean, responsible for about half of the coastline. The remaining part is divided among the USA, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, and Sweden.
Therefore, the retired military officer explains that seven of the eight countries with territory around the Arctic Circle are in NATO. But as Stavridis points out, Russia has "the most active and coherent Arctic programme". "Moscow is expanding and renewing its already formidable fleet of icebreakers: In the last four years, the Russians have put three new nuclear-powered ships into service, with at least another trio in the building yards," Stavridis points out.
Russia builds a combat icebreaker
What is significant from NATO's perspective is that Russia is building a combat icebreaker named "Ivan Papanin." The former commander notes that it is expected to be fully operational by the end of this year, with two more on the way. Like those of NATO, previous icebreakers were unarmed and designed for research, escorting commercial ships, and essential presence.
However, the new Russian icebreakers have missile launchers and 7.6 cm guns. "These are serious warships weighing in at 9,000 tons," Stavridis emphasises. "So the Russians will soon have a combat ship capable of crushing through the icepack in almost any winter conditions," he adds. He explains that only Norway's Svalbard ships have similar capabilities, but they do not have such combat capabilities.
The US Navy, on the other hand, does not have icebreakers. The programme that was supposed to create such "next-generation" ships has been postponed and is "significantly over budget". According to Stavridis, it is unlikely that any ship from this programme will be built before the end of the decade, closer to 2030.
"New ships are a clear signal that Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are tightening cooperation in NATO's backyard."
As we described, this is part of a broader plan. Russia is building new transport corridors linking Asia and Europe. The so-called Arctic Route is supposed to help Russia mitigate the effects of sanctions and strengthen Moscow's pivot towards Asian powers - China and India.
Currently, however, the Russians lack ships that could traverse the difficult corridor. The cost of developing the routes reaches £6.4 billion. According to analysts, a sea route through the Arctic would shorten the journey from Asia to Europe by 30 per cent compared to the southern sea route through the Suez Canal.
"New ships are a clear signal that Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are tightening cooperation in NATO's backyard," Stavridis emphasises. As he explains, the joint plans of these countries may include, through actions in this region, disrupting supply chains, espionage missions, or gaining "tactical experience," as well as "shifting Russian territorial claims for the exploration of gas and oil deposits."
What should NATO do in the Arctic?
According to Stavridis, NATO should create a special strategy for the Arctic. The former military officer advises leveraging, among other things, the experience of Sweden and Finland. He claims that "it is crucial" to quickly integrate Swedish and Finnish capabilities and influence in the region. The US, on the other hand, should accelerate the icebreaker building programme and strengthen existing destroyers.
Canada should also start allocating resources to maritime military forces in the Arctic, Stavridis advises. It is worth noting, however, that the Canadian government has announced the order of new submarines, capable of sailing under ice. The Canadian government has already announced a new strategy, providing for defence spending of more than £4.8 billion.
The former commander also believes that NATO should increase the number of exercises and supervision in the Arctic Ocean and treat it like the Mediterranean or the Baltic Sea, for example. He added that the region's satellite coverage needs improvement. The alliance should also review and improve its contingency plans for this region.
Stavridis concluded that he shared Arctic concerns over a decade ago with his Canadian colleagues as a NATO commander. They told him to relax because it is the 'high north, but low tensions.' They joked that if the Russians attacked Canada through the Arctic, they would send a rescue mission for them. That was before Putin invaded Ukraine and before the expansion of Russian icebreakers. Russia's Arctic capabilities are no longer a joke.
It should be noted, however, that recently, the defence ministers of Canada, Germany, and Norway signed a letter of intent to create a maritime defence alliance. The alliance aims to strengthen cooperation in the Arctic.
