Russian military might wane amid supply challenges, says intelligence chief

Budanov accentuated that while Ukraine faces challenging circumstances, Russia has its own set of issues to grapple with.

In the first year of the invasion, the professional Russian army took a significant hit – they're using more artillery ammunition than they're producing, most of the tanks employed are outdated models, and the frequency of rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities has reduced due to a depletion in rocket supplies, cited Budanov in an interview with "The Wall Street Journal".

Budanov has evaluated that these factors make it untenable for Russia to realize its goal of taking control over all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions within this year.

"They simply lack the force," he stressed.

As per "WSJ" quoting Western officials, the best-case scenario for Ukraine this year involves a strategic defense, weakening the enemy's forces whilst simultaneously rebuilding their own and prepping them for a potential offensive the following year.

The article also cited an analysis by the British think tank RUSI, predicting the Russian army to reach its zenith by the end of 2024, following which it will face gradually intensifying difficulties concerning ammunition and armoured vehicle supply.

Budanov noted that Russia had lately initiated a plan blending disinformation with "false flag" attacks against prominent Ukrainians - with the intention to incite divisions within Ukrainian society and undermine soldiers' morale.

According to Budanov, this campaign's culmination is expected in the spring, coinciding with a renewed wave of attacks on the frontline. However, he refrained from commenting on whether former president Petro Poroshenko was a chosen target. It is noteworthy that the political figure claimed his inability to attend the Munich Security Conference the previous week due to an assassination attempt.

Budanov conjectured that part of the Russian operation involved disseminating a fabricated internet video, which impersonated a news clip from France24 TV, alleging that French President Emmanuel Macron canceled his Kyiv visit due to apprehensions of an attempted coup. These baseless theories were also peddled by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

"These are all components of the same grand theory," emphasized the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.