Putin's slow offensive strategy banks on waning western support

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"Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine on June 7 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces." emphasizes ISW in its latest report, analyzing Vladimir Putin's speech.

The dictator announced that there is no need to declare a new mobilization in Russia, as the Kremlin does not aim to achieve its goals in Ukraine quickly. He stated that Russian forces are trying to "push out" Ukrainian forces from "those areas that should be under Russian control."

According to Putin, the current mobilization efforts of Russian authorities, which experts describe as covert mobilization, allowed for the recruitment of roughly 113,000 people in 2024.

As ISW writes, Putin's assessment that gradual offensive operations will enable Russia to achieve its goals is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate significant territories occupied by Russia and that the aggressor’s troops will be able to advance gradually and achieve tactical gains despite heavy losses.

ISW cites Western intelligence assessments, according to which Putin believes that Western support for Ukraine has ended, and the recent months of delays in deliveries have strengthened this belief. According to ISW, Putin's statements confirm that his evaluation of Ukraine's capabilities and his perception of the limitations of Western support will stimulate him to continue never-ending slow offensive operations if faster action is impossible.

"Putin's theory of victory hinges on a critical assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine to Russian victory, either on its own accord or in response to Russian efforts to persuade the West to do so, and it is far from clear that the West will do so," writes ISW.

The key to this "theory," according to the think tank, is the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine either on its own or in response to Russian persuasion, which is by no means certain.

"The West must proactively provide Ukrainian forces with the necessary equipment and weapons at the scale, timing, and regularity that Ukrainian forces require for operations that liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin's belief that he can gradually subsume Ukraine should rapid total victory appear unreachable," assesses ISW. Also important for disrupting Russian operations is the ability to use Western weapons to attack the aggressor's rear on Russian territory.

ISW warns that the West cannot succumb to the Russian strategic effort aimed at destroying Western commitment to the survival of Ukraine and must remember that Ukrainian victory was and is possible provided Western engagement.

ISW also notes that Putin "indirectly implied" that Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using Western weapons do not cross the "red lines" that would result in nuclear escalation.