Putin alters nuclear doctrine in bid to deter Western support
The revised Russian nuclear doctrine reduces the stated threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, aiming to deter the West from further increasing support for Ukraine, explains Artur Kacprzyk, a nuclear deterrence analyst.
The new version of the doctrine, signed by President Vladimir Putin, introduces additional situations in which Moscow reserves the right to deploy nuclear weapons.
The main reason for the change in doctrine is the desire to deter the West from further increasing support for Ukraine – explains Kacprzyk.
The analyst notes that the mere signing of the doctrine by Putin "is not surprising," as he had announced most of these changes as early as 25th September." This timing seems purposeful, as it occurred less than two days after media reports about the U.S. approving Ukraine's long-range missile attacks in certain areas within Russia.
Russia most likely wants to demonstrate that it is reacting and aims to increase pressure on the U.S. to reverse its decision, or at least not further relax restrictions on missile strikes – the expert assesses.
The key changes in the doctrine concern lowering the declared threshold for using nuclear weapons. In the previous version, Russia declared the possibility of using nuclear arms in response to a conventional attack "threatening the existence of the state." Now it speaks of responding to a conventional attack "posing a critical threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity."
The new doctrine also introduces the possibility of a nuclear response to a conventional attack on Belarus.
The analyst anticipates that if Russia decides on further actions, they may be "below the threshold of open aggression against NATO and other than the use of nuclear weapons." This could involve "heightening acts of sabotage against Western countries, aggressive actions near NATO reconnaissance planes, or additional nuclear threats."
Kacprzyk reminds us that Russia did not escalate when Ukraine carried out operations on Russian territory, such as entering parts of the Kursk Oblast or conducting drone attacks deep in the country.
The expert highlights that augmenting fears about the use of nuclear weapons forms part of attempts to establish a negotiating stance on Ukraine before Donald Trump assumes power in the U.S.
