Poland weighs risks in expanding missile defence strategy

In the letter, Joe Wilson and Steve Cohen urged Joe Biden "to grant Poland the authority to intercept and neutralize missiles over Ukraine, particularly those threatening to encroach upon Polish airspace." They noted, "In this context, Poland’s request to intercept and neutralize missiles over Ukraine is both necessary and urgent as a support mechanism for Ukraine and a safeguard to the frontline of NATO’s borders."

Members of the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe also referred to comments by Radosław Sikorski, Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, during a September interview with the British newspaper Financial Times. The politician stated that "Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine have a "duty" to shoot down incoming Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of Nato."

"I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defence [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant, it would be justified self-defence to strike them because once they cross into our airspace, the risk of injuring someone with debris is significant," argued the head of Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At the time, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg rejected this proposal, stating that it threatened "becoming a part of the conflict." His successor, Mark Rutte, has not yet commented on the matter.

Łukasz Pacholski, an expert from "Lotnictwo Aviation International" magazine, pointed out that Poland has the capability to shoot down Russian missiles in the airspace over Ukraine. "We already have two sets of Patriot systems. These were ordered as part of the first phase of the Wisła Programme. Additionally, we have at least two Mała Narew anti-aircraft systems, which are short-range systems developed in collaboration with the European industry, primarily with MBDA," he explains.

However, the expert highlights certain challenges related to the potential decision to shoot down missiles over Ukraine. "The biggest problem in this situation is that any interference by Polish air defence over Ukrainian territory could be perceived differently by the Russians. On one hand, it could be seen as NATO's actual involvement in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. On the other hand, they could use it to their advantage because the configuration of the Polish Patriot systems and the Narew systems remains largely unknown to the Russians. For them, the combat use of these systems would be an opportunity to gather invaluable intelligence data," he says.

Another important issue is how Ukrainians would perceive such a decision. There is a risk that debris from shot-down Russian missiles could fall on inhabited areas of Ukraine, posing a serious threat to civilian populations and critical infrastructure. "This issue is clearly visible in incidents where something flew to us. On the one hand, the object was over Poland, which means in Polish airspace, but on the other hand, there was concern that shooting down the object and the debris, or the wreckage of a Russian missile that would fall on populated areas, would cause more damage than the short flight over Poland and its re-entry into Ukrainian airspace," Łukasz Pacholski notes.

"The issue of actively using Polish anti-aircraft systems is, therefore, primarily a political decision. We would have to consider whether it is really worth it for us. We already have the capabilities. Agreements made in the past are bearing fruit. Anti-aircraft equipment is systematically being delivered to units, soldiers are being trained, and they are already achieving initial levels of operational readiness, which shows that in the event of an actual threat, this equipment could be used," the expert concludes.