NATO's eastern allies brace for potential Russian aggression

NATO countries closest to the Russian area are preparing for the worst-case scenarios. They are increasing their defence budgets, strengthening their borders, and looking towards the West, which guarantees safety in case of Russian aggression. No one knows how Vladimir Putin might act.

The portal natemat.pl monitors the situation and mood in the Baltic states. All Russian Federation neighbours are apprehensive, but no one is panicking. However, the public debate significantly discusses the likelihood of a military threat in these countries.

Sulev Vedler, deputy editor of the Estonian newspaper "Eesti Ekspress," admits that the thought of a Russian attack is not new, but the fear of invasion has recently increased. Estonians have realised that the "NATO umbrella," Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, is not a 100% guarantee of safety.

Estonia announced the construction of around 600 bunkers along the border with Russia. The army, where service is mandatory, is undergoing more specialised training. The Defence League (Kaitseliit), a voluntary national defence organisation, is growing in strength.

The sizable Russian minority living in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, who have a past under Soviet rule, can be a pretext for Russia to intervene militarily and for NATO an obstacle to responding. Conflict between Moscow and each of these states could start from instances of "violating the rights" of Russians abroad.

Each of these countries may face similar scenarios, fears former ambassador to Latvia, Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, as seen in Crimea or Donbas. Russians are prepared to defend their "oppressed" citizens living outside their homeland.

They have mastered the methods of hybrid warfare very well. I am afraid that they will try to apply them to the Baltic states. It wouldn’t surprise me, says the ambassador to Natemat.pl, who held the office until 2017.

The former diplomat believes that such actions in the Baltic states could even occur by the end of this year or at the beginning of next year. Experts maintain that the Kremlin will be ready for war with NATO in three years, so Moscow may initiate long-term preparations soon.

Many phenomena evidence that Russia is undertaking multidimensional preparations for military actions in the countries after Ukraine. Intense intelligence activities could persuade this. The disruptions in the functioning of the GPS noted in the Baltic region in recent months can also be interpreted as this.

Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia already decided in January to create a Baltic line of defence in agreement and cooperation. According to Andris Spruds, Latvian Minister of Defence, it is meant to "defend the eastern flank of NATO and deprive our opponents of the freedom to move" on the X platform.